2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140621-205738.csv

Table actions

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

✎ View and edit SQL

This data as json, copyable, CSV (advanced)

Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 64.22 1.1757 1.1682 0.0208 0.1638 0.025873515281317 0.004620839484798 0.000568903189709 8.1562171353e-05
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.92 2.8288 0.4448 0.9523 1.0 0.74485310064601 0.52319975290441 0.339583323542999 0.15751682466792
3 3 Australia AUS b 70.33 1.7888 1.2996 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 4 Belgium BEL h 81.82 2.1451 0.7583 0.6544 0.8727 0.406078692816409 0.151261658683469 0.062180542966684 0.017398294590363
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.59 2.3324 0.9795 0.0216 0.5635 0.191637578527785 0.074139763600522 0.019183335351911 0.006595880207122
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.1874 0.5156 0.9187 0.9944 0.750695709156169 0.603604595877013 0.454032108209233 0.348943257909873
7 7 Chile CHI b 87.79 2.7379 0.6167 0.4032 1.0 0.44826837186146 0.294781591448003 0.156793506320573 0.06893431948458
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2617 1.0151 0.0122 0.7438 0.395048111551031 0.147561485293115 0.052739404129812 0.012518875957725
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 69.4 1.4905 1.12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.51 2.4223 0.4507 0.9878 1.0 0.658039330349194 0.213119923726092 0.105081481764424 0.052313272078268
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.55 1.5911 0.6107 0.8831 1.0 0.468286435610398 0.155731383578123 0.051069662641701 0.01122954286272
12 12 Croatia CRO a 79.53 2.0276 0.8497 0.0378 0.3937 0.127265547197048 0.064055350333067 0.022274087851664 0.005102817876872
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.0 1.989 0.789 0.0045 0.3755 0.10474943262141 0.049048116591391 0.020290268678343 0.004874299669546
14 14 England ENG d 81.43 2.1314 0.7789 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 15 Spain ESP b 85.73 2.4815 0.6526 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 16 France FRA e 87.82 2.7485 0.62 0.9951 0.9999 0.702179526160218 0.379276242180314 0.146867920411677 0.076916867494138
17 17 Germany GER g 89.38 3.237 0.745 0.7649 0.9765 0.775224063123982 0.476748363243182 0.234744453583283 0.13450931934852
18 18 Ghana GHA g 76.28 1.8449 0.9481 0.0 0.1485 0.065906109948307 0.018248944201182 0.006545217395112 0.001237817747517
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.21 1.1796 0.5825 0.0 0.2127 0.090153017632193 0.025563582128006 0.006850888561076 0.00116330036249
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.33 1.5117 1.2037 0.0 0.0203 0.002868760266765 0.000867104886817 0.000223965183354 2.7701841177e-05
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.81 1.1916 0.7949 0.0 0.1538 0.029402165218055 0.006941311856193 0.000960251387882 0.000207177717296
22 22 Italy ITA d 79.26 1.9422 0.8095 0.0565 0.5789 0.199879522472276 0.042029383925112 0.013722496241489 0.004145639173519
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.35 1.9701 1.2392 0.0 0.0435 0.017902500452728 0.00478227926665 0.001230615332276 0.00018913743686
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.52 1.6902 1.0808 0.1271 0.409 0.10057014233266 0.023883318393535 0.004901537722806 0.00088408536435
25 25 Mexico MEX a 78.45 1.4757 0.534 0.0435 0.6119 0.181674341874971 0.085842323082875 0.027649588500211 0.005782051239996
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.18 2.7976 0.8089 0.5968 1.0 0.492096029910428 0.318789947223739 0.159209179040912 0.061072754854445
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 74.86 1.5469 0.8212 0.0261 0.2827 0.072055731705481 0.021440167517451 0.004395882233513 0.001028159873144
28 28 Portugal POR g 79.07 2.082 0.9213 0.0362 0.2383 0.121197117564164 0.039921181818256 0.014886660179928 0.003517446490912
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.33 1.6129 0.6409 0.1977 0.5545 0.181709800535474 0.057233684557413 0.015932288222897 0.003970464475498
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 78.27 2.1691 1.0401 0.0004 0.6043 0.152253704854182 0.067765777524772 0.026664771558506 0.005829600803446
31 31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2386 0.8471 0.0604 0.4211 0.170691081932128 0.044138154118168 0.016745914034797 0.005746356313164
32 32 USA USA g 78.54 2.1097 0.9792 0.1989 0.6367 0.323440558397762 0.105403772556321 0.034671745763225 0.008263171987185

Advanced export

JSON shape: default, array, newline-delimited

CSV options: 

CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140621-205738" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);