2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140623-220333.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 74.28 2.0432 1.2319 0.0378 0.6377 0.150021039856904 0.043400263678166 0.007801445982459 0.002121789442105
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.64 2.7388 0.425 0.8918 1.0 0.722724804816972 0.488356689470023 0.319090571268164 0.145020450032203
3 3 Australia AUS b 70.26 1.7863 1.3032 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 4 Belgium BEL h 83.29 2.1563 0.6524 0.9622 1.0 0.537750097996537 0.224037585169874 0.111481212374228 0.032158557420669
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.34 2.1914 0.9794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.1 3.1656 0.5023 1.0 1.0 0.741521344736627 0.592219877112427 0.444873184022489 0.349754126760143
7 7 Chile CHI b 87.76 2.7339 0.6197 0.0 1.0 0.258478655263344 0.15056684335656 0.077973631319431 0.044177780747179
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.68 2.2768 1.0128 0.0153 0.7691 0.412771462589592 0.167626947513046 0.06358045843403 0.015181448359792
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 69.34 1.4876 1.1228 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.41 2.4118 0.4555 0.9847 1.0 0.656341971092956 0.199316028813314 0.097960214220028 0.05228256745522
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.47 1.5821 0.6114 0.89 1.0 0.466069644041325 0.166548445010354 0.057173674952878 0.012439015223775
12 12 Croatia CRO a 79.81 2.0425 0.8417 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9854 0.7933 0.0037 0.3733 0.114780119420332 0.051812143415551 0.022702742311096 0.005381283418092
14 14 England ENG d 81.42 2.1295 0.7809 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4815 0.6539 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 16 France FRA e 87.8 2.7457 0.6228 0.9959 0.9999 0.721580827386903 0.389019366669101 0.145106643872999 0.081371335765007
17 17 Germany GER g 88.74 3.1773 0.7828 0.8631 0.9972 0.777012913096136 0.466395277947485 0.207825363658416 0.122962942936472
18 18 Ghana GHA g 78.98 1.9887 0.8644 0.0 0.2052 0.087246893860638 0.029710371957821 0.012610760106254 0.002796400740812
19 19 Greece GRE c 72.85 1.1093 0.6108 0.0 0.1934 0.078900913671765 0.02320409562603 0.006243225812643 0.000983345082688
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.27 1.5098 1.2066 0.0 0.0182 0.003005401838997 0.00085586336887 0.000235834788258 2.895910891e-05
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.87 1.1287 0.742 0.0 0.1248 0.023993685278145 0.005554717609752 0.000728754783078 0.000176716819824
22 22 Italy ITA d 79.21 1.9401 0.8138 0.0548 0.5896 0.203936165065126 0.040294185833965 0.013355370533496 0.004342648171074
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.34 1.972 1.2427 0.0 0.0375 0.015544546222818 0.004572516173143 0.001225001193414 0.000187634192634
24 24 South Korea KOR h 64.44 1.6461 1.5618 0.0 0.0078 0.001015272842881 0.000178824311598 1.5277408618e-05 2.547958906e-06
25 25 Mexico MEX a 78.39 1.4714 0.5366 0.0 1.0 0.30827385391661 0.147635251928042 0.050063488298717 0.01050282296002
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.2 2.7928 0.8062 1.0 1.0 0.691726146083271 0.466789520407035 0.244769226461465 0.088814705843512
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 76.09 1.5318 0.732 0.1082 0.8752 0.242164021838945 0.075698755110713 0.016798410417254 0.004319325633155
28 28 Portugal POR g 78.88 2.0901 0.9426 0.0 0.0506 0.021580937002349 0.007462311317862 0.003196972757545 0.000714078271133
29 29 Russia RUS h 76.91 1.4624 0.6276 0.0 0.3545 0.087307515948672 0.027255829691963 0.004887602887864 0.001550509150245
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 78.16 2.1622 1.0454 0.0004 0.6086 0.171751139419932 0.073384868699633 0.030566935534404 0.006581660080625
31 31 Uruguay URU d 81.47 2.2401 0.8513 0.0552 0.4104 0.166435297316293 0.041226288226085 0.01591555699562 0.005809487385864
32 32 USA USA g 78.74 2.1609 1.0022 0.1369 0.747 0.338065329396043 0.116877131581675 0.043818439605138 0.010337861039941

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140623-220333" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);