2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140624-181518.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

18 rows where win_group = "0.0"

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Suggested facets: group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
3 3 Australia AUS b 67.47 1.6808 1.4028 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.36 2.1892 0.9814 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.51 2.5638 0.6397 0.0 1.0 0.21893678148328 0.117720166302422 0.056809852005742 0.029505412538751
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 68.12 1.4495 1.1711 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 12 Croatia CRO a 77.85 2.0363 0.9831 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 14 England ENG d 81.41 2.1272 0.7842 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.3 2.5 0.6188 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 18 Ghana GHA g 79.05 1.9912 0.8658 0.0 0.1885 0.080443960702729 0.027704307772235 0.011253166534658 0.002432371100667
19 19 Greece GRE c 72.83 1.1075 0.6136 0.0 0.1951 0.080374415403291 0.021754450913901 0.005821787403831 0.000893287855203
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.39 1.5099 1.2039 0.0 0.0219 0.003600673609583 0.001028763015756 0.000270671009689 3.2500947028e-05
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.9 1.1282 0.7436 0.0 0.126 0.024284421002515 0.005712120591085 0.000725720128261 0.000171133302848
22 22 Italy ITA d 79.29 1.9384 0.8114 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.42 1.9724 1.2429 0.0 0.0389 0.016296587458765 0.004406609676813 0.001207525502748 0.000179951116467
24 24 South Korea KOR h 64.51 1.6438 1.5604 0.0 0.0075 0.000946067448014 0.000163064235963 1.3481952816e-05 2.236931978e-06
25 25 Mexico MEX a 80.23 1.6356 0.5319 0.0 1.0 0.312378822203724 0.160370786424373 0.059050082875421 0.013348502812018
28 28 Portugal POR g 79.06 2.1023 0.9427 0.0 0.0474 0.020588294368124 0.007038453881982 0.002898223459956 0.000637224775244
29 29 Russia RUS h 76.93 1.4614 0.6293 0.0 0.3574 0.089296824148196 0.027892119167767 0.004840456310607 0.001498597950467
31 31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2369 0.8522 0.0 1.0 0.382479153218255 0.075461709557361 0.02825404418731 0.011604073741801

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140624-181518" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);