2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140625-180355.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 74.32 2.0416 1.2344 0.0382 0.6281 0.149417067448211 0.044133505484483 0.007503462380132 0.001979343205008
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.65 2.7396 0.4256 1.0 1.0 0.744083608474386 0.509486752132415 0.335470576150356 0.146012675337599
3 3 Australia AUS b 67.52 1.6824 1.4017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 4 Belgium BEL h 83.12 2.134 0.6552 0.9618 1.0 0.530558632257932 0.206879439845749 0.099645953541247 0.027786971705595
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.4 2.19 0.9789 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.27 3.2346 0.521 1.0 1.0 0.778835285577725 0.613134442743121 0.469849941170354 0.367345188258079
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.6 2.5703 0.6345 0.0 1.0 0.221164714422391 0.114453884657446 0.056072846588906 0.028876111930049
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.11 2.2383 1.1081 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 68.13 1.4479 1.1705 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 10 Colombia COL c 88.18 2.5068 0.4405 1.0 1.0 0.631719470403351 0.196450834339706 0.102393152452089 0.055858714583044
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.59 1.5038 0.5506 1.0 1.0 0.566730338529872 0.19735065645726 0.065478896732768 0.013690168003456
12 12 Croatia CRO a 77.85 2.0359 0.9836 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.11 1.9817 0.7822 0.0033 0.3831 0.106071331859463 0.048176282828447 0.020767812276471 0.004858013840405
14 14 England ENG d 81.19 2.0524 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.3 2.5034 0.6205 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 16 France FRA e 87.8 2.744 0.6238 0.9963 0.9996 0.745717139836727 0.406261342582141 0.14648569751053 0.080167152809946
17 17 Germany GER g 88.62 3.1686 0.7927 0.8501 0.9972 0.773788165578238 0.466257015239707 0.200872798004813 0.114767233715392
18 18 Ghana GHA g 79.02 1.9875 0.8654 0.0 0.2028 0.08721389061189 0.027797573102947 0.011552249990619 0.002503491756845
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.37 1.1835 0.5811 0.0 1.0 0.433269661470122 0.124953981780207 0.03421832503101 0.005667305716856
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.45 1.5159 1.2065 0.0 0.02 0.002834644478016 0.00080594549724 0.000220328074675 2.6674317959e-05
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.91 1.1286 0.744 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 22 Italy ITA d 78.54 1.8199 0.781 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 23 Japan JPN c 72.56 2.0187 1.3374 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 24 South Korea KOR h 64.85 1.6567 1.551 0.0 0.0082 0.000996769198589 0.00018189467219 1.4912083186e-05 2.521067257e-06
25 25 Mexico MEX a 80.16 1.6322 0.534 0.0 1.0 0.312171494378759 0.172646910445282 0.061067943811914 0.013807862036034
26 26 Netherlands NED b 87.4 2.8013 0.6993 1.0 1.0 0.687828505621134 0.505048451317339 0.271380399329726 0.103326568406841
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 76.16 1.5231 0.7259 0.0 1.0 0.253639632557626 0.076258142441911 0.01275288685387 0.003847084284136
28 28 Portugal POR g 79.15 2.1062 0.9394 0.0 0.045 0.019675357725675 0.006402858412216 0.002710166928574 0.000600181957221
29 29 Russia RUS h 76.95 1.4615 0.6284 0.0 0.3637 0.09231143478668 0.029662855048925 0.005084279719996 0.001553170942933
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 78.11 2.1503 1.0465 0.0004 0.5973 0.147653642793758 0.062891004418954 0.025523386073171 0.005345864058312
31 31 Uruguay URU d 82.21 2.209 0.7769 0.0 1.0 0.368280529596662 0.075960838259639 0.029672703189684 0.012347323448555
32 32 USA USA g 78.85 2.1632 1.0015 0.1499 0.755 0.346038682392769 0.114805388292729 0.041261282105918 0.0096303786185

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140625-180355" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);