2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140628-094211.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 74.97 2.0792 1.2188 0 1 0.175127780095759 0.049503757389373 0.005846577102174 0.001477364944655
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.97 2.9251 0.4979 1 1 0.777322362338555 0.588935500495228 0.409223169161743 0.176217089411349
3 3 Australia AUS b 67.28 1.6761 1.4137 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 4 Belgium BEL h 83.03 2.053 0.6078 1 1 0.587600140246591 0.196924038600142 0.093190197019526 0.021547879593318
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.42 2.277 0.9624 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.21 3.2186 0.5182 1 1 0.823673601146162 0.657206065153528 0.513676582286621 0.407356663207205
7 7 Chile CHI b 85.73 2.5558 0.7047 0 1 0.176326398853838 0.083529445053021 0.037437449794074 0.017742305186576
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.24 2.2402 1.1009 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 68.24 1.4598 1.1751 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 10 Colombia COL c 88.92 2.6119 0.4272 1 1 0.690359106034079 0.208959630119666 0.111608687341839 0.062193866821388
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.28 1.483 0.5568 1 1 0.573267267421035 0.180461100648586 0.051121004088174 0.008135960942152
12 12 Croatia CRO a 77.95 2.0424 0.9815 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.04 1.7772 0.6444 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 14 England ENG d 81.1 2.052 0.7566 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.17 2.4908 0.6234 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 16 France FRA e 87.64 2.6456 0.579 1 1 0.757415557886925 0.378619867195537 0.119814615029231 0.062738960094068
17 17 Germany GER g 88.65 3.0556 0.7218 1 1 0.824872219904241 0.510477240709 0.186120175599829 0.107939704768072
18 18 Ghana GHA g 78.32 1.9864 0.9151 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.47 1.1739 0.5684 0 1 0.426732732578965 0.108224289231213 0.02453907099945 0.002961919499829
20 20 Honduras HON e 65.84 1.4308 1.2984 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 21 Iran IRN f 69.42 1.1061 0.8139 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 22 Italy ITA d 78.46 1.814 0.7828 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 23 Japan JPN c 72.68 2.0197 1.3317 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 24 South Korea KOR h 64.81 1.5092 1.4291 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
25 25 Mexico MEX a 80.09 1.6228 0.5322 0 1 0.283904319604382 0.160473161185417 0.050013806306886 0.008974676741702
26 26 Netherlands NED b 87.26 2.7872 0.704 1 1 0.716095680395618 0.550841448934785 0.285138074302118 0.098357276396689
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 77.14 1.6979 0.79 0 1 0.242584442113075 0.06139913470609 0.008167889161598 0.00223950620782
28 28 Portugal POR g 79.89 2.1722 0.9308 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
29 29 Russia RUS h 76.4 1.4344 0.6447 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.75 2.2668 1.0069 0 1 0.222677637661444 0.106968563404489 0.044900897719418 0.008514981713087
31 31 Uruguay URU d 81.67 2.1888 0.8063 0 1 0.309640893965921 0.050304859673786 0.017328023684634 0.006435127223038
32 32 USA USA g 78.64 2.0284 0.9224 0 1 0.412399859753409 0.107171897500141 0.041873780402684 0.007166717249052

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140628-094211" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" INTEGER,
  "sixteen" INTEGER,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);