forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions: 100

This table contains the data behind the story How The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Model Works.

Header Definition
state Election
year Year of election
candidate Last name
forecast_prob Probability of winning election per FiveThirtyEight Election Day forecast
result Win or Loss

For archived results, see:

  • 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20081106113055/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
  • 2010 http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate
  • 2012 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

This data as json, copyable

rowid state year candidate forecast_prob result winflag
100 Mississippi (special election) 2008 Musgrove 0.06 Lose 0