Historical FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasts: historical-senate-predictions.csv

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This table contains the data behind the story How The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Model Works.

Header Definition
state Election
year Year of election
candidate Last name
forecast_prob Probability of winning election per FiveThirtyEight Election Day forecast
result Win or Loss

For archived results, see:

  • 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20081106113055/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
  • 2010 http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate
  • 2012 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

207 rows

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Link rowid ▼ state year candidate forecast_prob result winflag
1 1 Alabama 2008 Sessions 1.0 Win 1
2 2 Alabama 2008 Figures 0.0 Lose 0
3 3 Alabama 2010 Shelby 1.0 Win 1
4 4 Alabama 2010 Barnes 0.0 Loss 0
5 5 Alaska 2008 Begich 1.0 Win 1
6 6 Alaska 2008 Stevens 0.0 Lose 0
7 7 Alaska 2010 Miller 0.71 Lose 0
8 8 Alaska 2010 Murkowski 0.21 Win 1
9 9 Alaska 2010 McAdams 0.08 Loss 0
10 10 Arizona 2010 Glassman 1.0 Win 1
11 11 Arizona 2010 McCain 0.0 Loss 0
12 12 Arizona 2012 Flake 0.96 Win 1
13 13 Arizona 2012 Carmona 0.04 Loss 0
14 14 Arkansas 2008 Pryor 1.0 Win 1
15 15 Arkansas 2010 Boozman 1.0 Win 1
16 16 Arkansas 2010 Lincoln 0.0 Loss 0
17 17 California 2012 Feinstein 1.0 Win 1
18 18 California 2012 Emken 0.0 Loss 0
19 19 Colorado 2008 M. Udall 1.0 Win 1
20 20 Colorado 2008 Schaeffer 0.0 Lose 0
21 21 Colorado 2010 Buck 0.65 Loss 0
22 22 Colorado 2010 Bennett 0.35 Win 1
23 23 Connecticut 2010 Blumenthal 1.0 Win 1
24 24 Connecticut 2010 McMahon 0.0 Loss 0
25 25 Connecticut 2012 Murphy 0.96 Win 1
26 26 Connecticut 2012 McMahon 0.04 Loss 0
27 27 Delaware 2008 Biden 1.0 Win 1
28 28 Delaware 2008 O'Connell 0.0 Lose 0
29 29 Delaware 2010 Coons 1.0 Win 1
30 30 Delaware 2010 O'Donnell 0.0 Loss 0
31 31 Delaware 2012 Carper 1.0 Win 1
32 32 Delaware 2012 Wade 0.0 Loss 0
33 33 Florida 2010 Rubio 0.97 Win 1
34 34 Florida 2010 Crist 0.03 Loss 0
35 35 Florida 2010 Meeks 0.0 Loss 0
36 36 Florida 2012 Nelson 1.0 Win 1
37 37 Florida 2012 Mack 0.0 Loss 0
38 38 Georgia 2008 Chambilss 0.88 Win 1
39 39 Georgia 2008 Martin 0.12 Lose 0
40 40 Georgia 2010 Isakson 1.0 Win 1
41 41 Georgia 2010 Thurmond 0.0 Loss 0
42 42 Hawaii 2010 Inouye 1.0 Win 1
43 43 Hawaii 2010 Cavasso 0.0 Loss 0
44 44 Hawaii 2012 Hirono 1.0 Win 1
45 45 Hawaii 2012 Lingle 0.0 Loss 0
46 46 Idaho 2008 Risch 1.0 Win 1
47 47 Idaho 2008 LaRocco 0.0 Lose 0
48 48 Idaho 2010 Crapo 1.0 Win 1
49 49 Idaho 2010 Sullivan 0.0 Loss 0
50 50 Illinois 2008 Durbin 1.0 Win 1
51 51 Illinois 2008 Sauerberg 0.0 Lose 0
52 52 Illinois 2010 Kirk 0.69 Win 1
53 53 Illinois 2010 Giannoulias 0.31 Loss 0
54 54 Indiana 2010 Coats 1.0 Win 1
55 55 Indiana 2010 Ellsworth 0.0 Loss 0
56 56 Indiana 2012 Donnelly 0.7 Win 1
57 57 Indiana 2012 Lingle 0.3 Loss 0
58 58 Iowa 2008 Harkin 1.0 Win 1
59 59 Iowa 2008 Reed 0.0 Lose 0
60 60 Iowa 2010 Grassley 1.0 Win 1
61 61 Iowa 2010 Conlin 0.0 Loss 0
62 62 Kansas 2008 Roberts 1.0 Win 1
63 63 Kansas 2008 Slattery 0.0 Lose 0
64 64 Kansas 2010 Moran 1.0 Win 1
65 65 Kansas 2010 Johnston 0.0 Loss 0
66 66 Kentucky 2008 McConnell 0.92 Win 1
67 67 Kentucky 2008 Lunsford 0.08 Lose 0
68 68 Kentucky 2010 Paul 1.0 Win 1
69 69 Kentucky 2010 Conway 0.0 Loss 0
70 70 Louisiana 2008 Landireu 1.0 Win 1
71 71 Louisiana 2008 Kennedy 0.0 Lose 0
72 72 Louisiana 2010 Vitter 1.0 Win 1
73 73 Louisiana 2010 Melancon 0.0 Loss 0
74 74 Maine 2008 Collins 1.0 Win 1
75 75 Maine 2008 Allen 0.0 Lose 0
76 76 Maine 2012 King 0.93 Win 1
77 77 Maine 2012 Summers 0.06 Loss 0
78 78 Maine 2012 Dill 0.01 Loss 0
79 79 Maryland 2010 Murkowski 1.0 Win 1
80 80 Maryland 2010 Wargotz 0.0 Loss 0
81 81 Maryland 2012 Cardin 1.0 Win 1
82 82 Maryland 2012 Bongino 0.0 Loss 0
83 83 Massachusetts 2008 Kerry 1.0 Win 1
84 84 Massachusetts 2008 Beatty 0.0 Lose 0
85 85 Massachusetts 2012 Warren 0.94 Win 1
86 86 Massachusetts 2012 Brown 0.06 Loss 0
87 87 Michigan 2008 Levin 1.0 Win 1
88 88 Michigan 2008 Hoogendyk 0.0 Lose 0
89 89 Michigan 2012 Stabenow 1.0 Win 1
90 90 Michigan 2012 Hoekstra 0.0 Loss 0
91 91 Minnesota 2008 Franken 0.52 Win 1
92 92 Minnesota 2008 Coleman 0.48 Lose 0
93 93 Minnesota 2012 Klobuchar 1.0 Win 1
94 94 Minnesota 2012 Bills 0.0 Loss 0
95 95 Mississippi 2008 Cochran 1.0 Win 1
96 96 Mississippi 2008 Fleming 0.0 Lose 0
97 97 Mississippi 2012 Wicker 1.0 Win 1
98 98 Mississippi 2012 Gore 0.0 Loss 0
99 99 Mississippi (special election) 2008 Wicker 0.94 Win 1
100 100 Mississippi (special election) 2008 Musgrove 0.06 Lose 0

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CREATE TABLE "forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions" (
"state" TEXT,
  "year" INTEGER,
  "candidate" TEXT,
  "forecast_prob" REAL,
  "result" TEXT,
  "winflag" INTEGER
);