forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions: 25

This table contains the data behind the story How The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Model Works.

Header Definition
state Election
year Year of election
candidate Last name
forecast_prob Probability of winning election per FiveThirtyEight Election Day forecast
result Win or Loss

For archived results, see:

  • 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20081106113055/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
  • 2010 http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate
  • 2012 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/

Data source: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/master/forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions.csv

This data as json, copyable

rowid state year candidate forecast_prob result winflag
25 Connecticut 2012 Murphy 0.96 Win 1