NBA Draft 2015: historical_projections.csv

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This table contains data behind the story Projecting The Top 50 Players In The 2015 NBA Draft Class.

historical_projections.csv contains historical results of the NBA draft projection model, 2001-2015.

Header Definition
Player Player name
Position The player's position going into the draft
ID The player's identification code
Draft Year The year the player was eligible for the NBA draft
Projected SPM The model's projected statistical plus/minus over years 2-5 of the player's NBA career
Superstar Probability of becoming a superstar player (1 per draft, SPM >= +3.3)
Starter Probability of becoming a starting-caliber player (10 per draft, SPM >= +0.5)
Role Player Probability of becoming a role player (25 per draft, SPM >= -1.4)
Bust Probability of becoming a bust (everyone else, SPM < -1.4)

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

1,090 rows

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Suggested facets: Position, Draft Year

Link rowid ▼ Player Position ID Draft Year Projected SPM Superstar Starter Role Player Bust
1 1 Karl-Anthony Towns C karl-anthony-towns 2015 1.030605703 0.134766667 0.427183333 0.163083333 0.274966667
2 2 Justise Winslow SF justise-winslow 2015 0.875328997 0.083528571 0.510904762 0.176766667 0.2288
3 3 Stanley Johnson SF stanley-johnson 2015 0.679493305 0.0678 0.423733333 0.2785 0.229966667
4 4 Jahlil Okafor C jahlil-okafor 2015 0.521661276 0.058716667 0.4099 0.235533333 0.29585
5 5 D`Angelo Russell PG d-angelo-russell 2015 0.511966664 0.152033333 0.342283333 0.096583333 0.4091
6 6 Dakari Johnson C dakari-johnson 2015 0.491787354 0.021340778 0.36754357 0.417571997 0.193543655
7 7 Devin Booker SG 3-devin-booker 2015 0.472577305 0.073366667 0.324466667 0.390166667 0.212
8 8 Willie Cauley-Stein C willie-cauley-stein 2015 0.351171383 0.047114455 0.405989863 0.243185719 0.303709963
9 9 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson SF rondae-hollis-jefferson 2015 0.311909198 0.014589784 0.368533143 0.392480667 0.224396406
10 10 Trey Lyles PF trey-lyles 2015 0.267509411 0.022385714 0.351328571 0.403052381 0.223233333
11 11 Sam Dekker SF sam-dekker 2015 0.254164944 0.008691989 0.385003946 0.329053601 0.277250464
12 12 Kelly Oubre Jr. SF kelly-oubre-jr 2015 0.247310247 0.019833333 0.378983333 0.337966667 0.263216667
13 13 Tyus Jones PG tyus-jones 2015 0.243548797 0.0272 0.414561905 0.284404762 0.273833333
14 14 Kevon Looney PF kevon-looney 2015 0.204173217 0.0083 0.355566667 0.374916667 0.261216667
15 15 Myles Turner PF 2-myles-turner 2015 0.076381303 0.029416667 0.335797619 0.318516667 0.316269048
16 16 Cliff Alexander PF cliff-alexander 2015 0.026133537 0.007633333 0.294783333 0.406616667 0.290966667
17 17 Christian Wood PF christian-wood 2015 -0.019560841 0.008396848 0.31111083 0.393687898 0.286804424
18 18 Frank Kaminsky C frank-kaminsky 2015 -0.072352472 0.006718361 0.352834529 0.327164489 0.313282621
19 19 Michael Frazier II SG michael-frazier-ii 2015 -0.16705094 0.010083843 0.254306634 0.381989035 0.353620488
20 20 Brandon Ashley PF brandon-ashley 2015 -0.170210127 0.011186812 0.253264673 0.356138802 0.379409713
21 21 Bobby Portis PF bobby-portis 2015 -0.314574233 0.003141375 0.253027047 0.386533364 0.357298214
22 22 Andrew Harrison PG andrew-harrison 2015 -0.337040592 0.01122782 0.209972569 0.3939911 0.384808511
23 23 Rashad Vaughn SG rashad-vaughn 2015 -0.342326069 0.020666667 0.242333333 0.3678 0.3692
24 24 Aaron Harrison SG 3-aaron-harrison 2015 -0.420844124 0.009668813 0.191222705 0.391380191 0.407728291
25 25 Montrezl Harrell PF montrezl-harrell 2015 -0.436183176 0.003904083 0.200321084 0.411584119 0.384190715
26 26 Quinn Cook PG quinn-cook 2015 -0.453518413 0.000128454 0.221394556 0.365234166 0.413242824
27 27 Cameron Payne PG 2-cameron-payne 2015 -0.604344604 0.009530364 0.19008399 0.316887572 0.483498073
28 28 Chris McCullough PF chris-mccullough 2015 -0.630996181 0.006566667 0.192133333 0.2932 0.5081
29 29 Justin Anderson SF justin-anderson 2015 -0.635744631 0.000926066 0.157187056 0.412166931 0.429719947
30 30 Terry Rozier PG terry-rozier 2015 -0.637633814 0.007467101 0.188247503 0.299670223 0.504615174
31 31 Vince Hunter SF vince-hunter 2015 -0.644930502 0.003999131 0.145082443 0.385996989 0.464921437
32 32 Delon Wright PG delon-wright 2015 -0.666006064 0.002650704 0.169565987 0.359936913 0.467846395
33 33 Jarell Martin PF jarell-martin 2015 -0.721739664 0.001471636 0.158725617 0.357772678 0.482030069
34 34 Jordan Mickey PF jordan-mickey 2015 -0.745960108 0.001443787 0.144665538 0.374332518 0.479558158
35 35 Wayne Blackshear SG wayne-blackshear 2015 -0.750833557 0.001026966 0.115460611 0.433883586 0.449628838
36 36 Chris Walker PF 5-chris-walker 2015 -0.75113066 0.001166667 0.157566667 0.353433333 0.487833333
37 37 T.J. McConnell PG tj-mcconnell 2015 -0.760484149 0.002670752 0.102511805 0.43556844 0.459249003
38 38 J.P. Tokoto SF jp-tokoto 2015 -0.785873736 0.000673629 0.107998383 0.431220506 0.460107482
39 39 Pat Connaughton SF pat-connaughton 2015 -0.833781871 0.000664804 0.08891347 0.432599715 0.47782201
40 40 R.J. Hunter SG rj-hunter 2015 -0.836776877 0.004112703 0.121239491 0.385605421 0.489042385
41 41 Jerian Grant PG jerian-grant 2015 -0.869777062 0.001169979 0.130352495 0.345982451 0.522495076
42 42 Olivier Hanlan SG olivier-hanlan 2015 -0.939601082 0.000227369 0.058708643 0.482292406 0.458771582
43 43 Branden Dawson SF branden-dawson 2015 -0.94832171 0.000308971 0.093166238 0.391170861 0.51535393
44 44 Robert Upshaw C robert-upshaw 2015 -0.953017497 0.000216394 0.088032316 0.38180529 0.529946
45 45 Tyler Harvey SG tyler-harvey 2015 -0.963286998 0.0 0.045680357 0.485580914 0.468738729
46 46 Darrun Hilliard SG darrun-hilliard 2015 -0.997597057 0.001336934 0.058581954 0.430904831 0.509176281
47 47 Tyler Haws SG tyler-haws 2015 -1.014375418 0.001035564 0.038756025 0.476593937 0.483614474
48 48 Treveon Graham SG treveon-graham 2015 -1.026896912 0.001371164 0.075528744 0.379480354 0.543619737
49 49 Rakeem Christmas PF rakeem-christmas 2015 -1.037407078 0.000103674 0.074800607 0.399359049 0.52573667
50 50 Kenneth Smith PG 3-kenneth-smith 2015 -1.039547879 0.000746776 0.073520453 0.35809779 0.567634981
51 51 Michael Qualls SG 3-michael-qualls 2015 -1.041676256 0.005867204 0.056290419 0.39026949 0.547572888
52 52 Aaron White PF 5-aaron-white 2015 -1.044431359 0.000858212 0.090374546 0.358788407 0.549978835
53 53 Alan Williams PF 3-alan-williams 2015 -1.051104888 0.00100349 0.027920018 0.449342651 0.52173384
54 54 Shannon Scott PG shannon-scott 2015 -1.061872742 0.001596119 0.068008751 0.356970581 0.573424549
55 55 Isaac Fotu PF isaac-fotu 2015 -1.065081918 0.001318013 0.054936126 0.384945795 0.558800066
56 56 Keifer Sykes PG keifer-sykes 2015 -1.083833575 0.002417356 0.04982042 0.387609233 0.560152991
57 57 Juwan Staten PG juawn-staten 2015 -1.095315539 0.000476844 0.038064935 0.414884254 0.546573966
58 58 Corey Hawkins SG corey-hawkins 2015 -1.096899647 0.000108822 0.033205484 0.436069852 0.530615842
59 59 D.J. Newbill SG devonte-newbill 2015 -1.108784009 0.000554941 0.026482771 0.436494657 0.536467631
60 60 Josh Richardson SG 2-josh-richardson 2015 -1.125029822 0.000131253 0.056205838 0.376816007 0.566846902
61 61 Jonathan Holmes SF 2-jonathan-holmes 2015 -1.13357382 0.0 0.053248718 0.365396839 0.581354443
62 62 Joseph Young SG joseph-young 2015 -1.138828781 8.03961e-05 0.04891635 0.394276343 0.55672691
63 63 Wesley Saunders SG wesley-saunders 2015 -1.171996457 0.000373186 0.036596138 0.387045086 0.575985589
64 64 Richaun Holmes PF richaun-holmes 2015 -1.186744347 0.000357099 0.060157338 0.314633278 0.624852285
65 65 Anthony Brown SG 3-anthony-brown 2015 -1.187041132 0.0 0.038678905 0.379622804 0.581698291
66 66 Norman Powell SG norman-powell 2015 -1.189678464 0.0 0.03610954 0.38697547 0.576914989
67 67 Josh Smith C 9-josh-smith 2015 -1.192473127 0.0 0.026755605 0.382057886 0.591186509
68 68 Derrick Marks SG derrick-marks 2015 -1.199786481 0.001857445 0.030881673 0.379643412 0.587617469
69 69 Marcus Thornton SG 2-marcus-thornton 2015 -1.202113387 0.000489255 0.021634511 0.389748446 0.588127788
70 70 Terran Petteway SG terran-petteway 2015 -1.207198123 0.0 0.035343103 0.367281274 0.597375623
71 71 Seth Tuttle PF seth-tuttle 2015 -1.221872777 0.0 0.03687377 0.358785304 0.604340925
72 72 Trevor Lacey SG trevor-lacey 2015 -1.2269165 0.0 0.033303382 0.357759442 0.608937176
73 73 Dez Wells SG dezmine-wells 2015 -1.244978961 0.000229033 0.022535212 0.384498234 0.59273752
74 74 Larry Nance, Jr. PF larry-nance-jr 2015 -1.254446537 0.0 0.030613137 0.339796126 0.629590736
75 75 Sir`Dominic Pointer SF sir-dominic-pointer 2015 -1.301544045 0.0 0.029016181 0.320955511 0.650028307
76 76 Briante Weber PG briante-weber 2015 -1.308756716 0.004466226 0.037216853 0.286508463 0.671808458
77 77 Cady Lalanne PF cady-lalanne 2015 -1.312742518 0.0 0.022921295 0.33122696 0.645851745
78 78 Joel Embiid C joel-embiid 2014 1.164983449 0.147866667 0.398188095 0.234645238 0.2193
79 79 Marcus Smart PG marcus-smart 2014 0.9972632 0.163507826 0.363845589 0.142131996 0.33051459
80 80 Noah Vonleh PF noah-vonieh 2014 0.88516864 0.099 0.461066667 0.1801 0.259833333
81 81 Aaron Gordon PF aaron-gordon 2014 0.844204419 0.0966 0.4617 0.200033333 0.241666667
82 82 Andrew Wiggins SG andrew-wiggins 2014 0.694104731 0.110216667 0.42225 0.118 0.349533333
83 83 Julius Randle PF julius-randle 2014 0.627281437 0.082233333 0.417433333 0.2036 0.296733333
84 84 Jabari Parker SF jabari-parker 2014 0.514308936 0.0885 0.405 0.152666667 0.353833333
85 85 Jordan Adams SG 2-jordan-adams 2014 0.416089009 0.051623343 0.357780708 0.325513346 0.265082604
86 86 Gary Harris SG gary-harris 2014 0.298824269 0.068668118 0.334410402 0.310628849 0.286292631
87 87 Jarnell Stokes PF jarnell-stokes 2014 0.144021715 0.014131988 0.293791082 0.41587172 0.27620521
88 88 Nik Stauskas SG nik-stauskas 2014 0.09764512 0.016286567 0.302474659 0.390961236 0.290277537
89 89 James Young SF james-young 2014 0.023821786 0.0317 0.310783333 0.359264286 0.298252381
90 90 Glenn Robinson III SF glenn-robinson-iii 2014 -0.005355215 0.006183208 0.281363583 0.404918844 0.307534365
91 91 Zach LaVine PG zach-lavine 2014 -0.04600119 0.032766667 0.2868 0.397933333 0.2825
92 92 T.J. Warren SF tj-warren 2014 -0.148039157 0.013448779 0.258598773 0.36924236 0.358710088
93 93 Mitch McGary PF mitch-mcgary 2014 -0.274478981 0.007489118 0.237597619 0.434655687 0.320257575
94 94 Elfrid Payton PG elfrid-payton 2014 -0.284167648 0.019206755 0.239723996 0.343878864 0.397190385
95 95 Kyle Anderson PF 3-kyle-anderson 2014 -0.291038075 0.012674006 0.254152427 0.329701228 0.40347234
96 96 Rodney Hood SG rodney-hood 2014 -0.315093348 0.002403967 0.236255935 0.414664765 0.346675333
97 97 Tyler Ennis PG tyler-ennis 2014 -0.392781623 0.037816667 0.248416667 0.2376 0.476166667
98 98 Scottie Wilbekin PG scottie-wilbekin 2014 -0.429531082 0.008391528 0.1896991 0.410623309 0.391286062
99 99 Jerami Grant SF jerami-grant 2014 -0.453116853 0.008432581 0.191915165 0.375301105 0.424351149
100 100 Ioannis Papapetrou SF ioannis-papapetrou 2014 -0.546537848 0.011866667 0.1737 0.386366667 0.428066667

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CREATE TABLE "nba-draft-2015/historical_projections" (
"Player" TEXT,
  "Position" TEXT,
  "ID" TEXT,
  "Draft Year" INTEGER,
  "Projected SPM" REAL,
  "Superstar" REAL,
  "Starter" REAL,
  "Role Player" REAL,
  "Bust" REAL
);