pollster-ratings/2019/pollster-ratings
Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette
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Link | rowid | Pollster | Pollster Rating ID | # of Polls | NCPP / AAPOR / Roper | Live Caller With Cellphones | Methodology | Banned by 538 | Historical Advanced Plus-Minus | Predictive Plus-Minus | 538 Grade | Mean-Reverted Bias | Races Called Correctly | Misses Outside MOE | Simple Average Error | Simple Expected Error | Simple Plus-Minus | Advanced Plus-Minus | Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus | Predictive Plus-Minus | # of Polls for Bias Analysis | Bias ▼ | Mean-Reverted Bias.1 | House Effect | Average Distance from Polling Average (ADPA) | Herding Penalty |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
35 | 35 | Castleton University | 45 | 3 | yes | yes | Live | no | -0.7 | -0.5 | A/B° | 100% | 33% | 9.9 | 9.2 | 0.9 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
85 | 85 | Iowa State University | 153 | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | -3.7 | 0.2 | B/C° | 67% | 33% | 6.3 | 8.6 | -2.1 | -3.7 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
120 | 120 | Public Opinion Strategies/Hamilton Campaigns (Texas Credit Union League) | 261 | 2 | no | yes* | Live* | no | -2.2 | 0.3 | B/C° | 100% | 50% | 7.0 | 9.1 | -2.0 | -2.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
121 | 121 | Personal Marketing Research | 252 | 3 | no | yes* | Live* | no | -2.1 | 0.3 | B/C° | 67% | 33% | 6.2 | 8.0 | -1.6 | -2.1 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0 | 6.1 | 0.0 | ||||
124 | 124 | University of Houston | 351 | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -6.4 | 0.3 | B/C° | 100% | 0% | 2.0 | 8.2 | -6.0 | -6.4 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
140 | 140 | Merrill Poll | 206 | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.4 | 0.4 | B/C° | 100% | 50% | 8.7 | 8.8 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
144 | 144 | QEV Analytics | 266 | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.8 | 0.4 | B/C° | 0% | 0% | 7.3 | 6.5 | 1.0 | -2.8 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
146 | 146 | New Mexico State University | 230 | 1 | no | yes* | Live* | no | -3.2 | 0.4 | B/C° | 0% | 0% | 6.8 | 10.6 | -3.7 | -3.2 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
152 | 152 | Baruch College | 22 | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.2 | 0.4 | B/C° | 100% | 0% | 5.7 | 8.4 | -2.6 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0 | 9.2 | 0.0 | ||||
156 | 156 | Canisius College | 43 | 1 | no | yes* | Live* | no | -5.7 | 0.4 | B/C° | 100% | 0% | 0.1 | 8.3 | -8.0 | -5.7 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
167 | 167 | Vox Populi Polling | 529 | 1 | no | yes* | Live* | no | -3.1 | 0.4 | B/C° | 100% | 0% | 3.5 | 8.3 | -4.6 | -3.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | ||||
172 | 172 | Dartmouth College | 72 | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.6 | 0.4 | B/C° | 100% | 50% | 9.0 | 8.4 | 0.8 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
200 | 200 | University of Nevada Las Vegas | 356 | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.8 | 0.5 | B/C° | 100% | 100% | 9.0 | 8.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
204 | 204 | Public Strategies Inc. | 264 | 6 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.6 | 0.5 | B/C° | 100% | 33% | 7.9 | 8.4 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0 | 7.6 | 0.0 | ||||
216 | 216 | Overtime Politics | 247 | 12 | no | yes | Live | yes | 0.6 | 0.5 | F | 67% | 42% | 9.8 | 8.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0 | 6.8 | 0.0 | ||||
244 | 244 | Ron Lester and Associates | 293 | 1 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 3.3 | 0.6 | B/C° | 100% | 100% | 18.9 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.34 | ||||
273 | 273 | Douglas Fulmer & Associates | 82 | 2 | no | partial | IVR/Live | no | -2.7 | 0.6 | B/C° | 100% | 50% | 5.1 | 8.0 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0 | 9.1 | 0.0 | ||||
281 | 281 | Schapiro Group | 300 | 2 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 5.0 | 0.7 | B/C° | 100% | 100% | 20.0 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0 | 5.0 | 0.36 | ||||
315 | 315 | R.L. Repass & Partners | 268 | 1 | no | partial | Online/Live | no | 0.8 | 0.9 | B/C° | 100% | 100% | 11.2 | 9.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
334 | 334 | Alabama State University | 8 | 4 | no | no | Landline | no | -3.0 | 1.0 | B/C° | 50% | 50% | 6.4 | 7.8 | -1.3 | -3.0 | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0 | 5.0 | 0.03 | ||||
336 | 336 | IVR Polls | 146 | 4 | no | no | IVR | no | -2.1 | 1.0 | B/C° | 100% | 25% | 4.1 | 8.0 | -3.8 | -2.1 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 0 | 8.1 | 0.0 | ||||
342 | 342 | Master Image | 200 | 2 | no | no | IVR | no | -3.9 | 1.1 | B/C° | 100% | 0% | 1.2 | 7.1 | -5.8 | -3.9 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
358 | 358 | Data for Progress | 522 | 1 | no | no | Text | no | -1.7 | 1.2 | B/C° | 100% | 0% | 2.8 | 3.7 | -0.7 | -1.7 | -0.1 | 1.2 | 0 | 5.3 | 0.0 | ||||
373 | 373 | War Room Logistics | 374 | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | -1.3 | 1.2 | B/C° | 100% | 100% | 4.5 | 7.1 | -2.4 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0 | 11.3 | 0.0 | ||||
383 | 383 | TargetPoint | 331 | 3 | no | partial | IVR/Live | no | 4.1 | 1.3 | C/D° | 83% | 100% | 14.0 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
386 | 386 | Liberty Opinion Research | 169 | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | 0.6 | 1.3 | C/D° | 100% | 100% | 5.7 | 6.9 | -1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.51 | ||||
392 | 392 | TeleResearch Corporation | 335 | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | 2.3 | 1.4 | C/D° | 100% | 100% | 8.6 | 7.7 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0 | 11.3 | 0.0 | ||||
398 | 398 | ResearchNow | 283 | 2 | no | no | Online | no | 0.5 | 1.4 | C/D° | 100% | 100% | 9.4 | 8.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | ||||
399 | 399 | New Frontier Strategy | 229 | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | 4.0 | 1.4 | C/D° | 0% | 100% | 21.6 | 7.5 | 14.3 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
403 | 403 | GCR & Associates | 110 | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | 6.1 | 1.5 | C/D° | 100% | 100% | 18.3 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
408 | 408 | Spry Strategies | 508 | 1 | no | partial | IVR/Online/Live | no | 10.0 | 1.5 | C/D° | 100% | 100% | 14.6 | 4.8 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 0 | 19.4 | 0.0 | ||||
412 | 412 | Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne | 150 | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | 9.7 | 1.6 | C/D° | 0% | 100% | 23.5 | 8.9 | 14.7 | 9.7 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||
423 | 423 | CPEC LLC | 38 | 3 | no | no | IVR | no | 7.5 | 2.1 | C/D° | 100% | 100% | 16.2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0 | 11.6 | 0.0 | ||||
107 | 107 | GBAO | 109 | 6 | no | partial | Online/Live | no | -1.9 | 0.3 | B/C° | D +0.0 | 75% | 0% | 3.7 | 6.0 | -2.1 | -1.9 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 6 | D +0.0 | D +0.0 | D +1.9 | 0.0 | |
2 | 2 | Selzer & Co. | 304 | 44 | yes | yes | Live | no | -1.9 | -1.4 | A+ | D +0.1 | 84% | 25% | 4.2 | 5.7 | -1.3 | -1.9 | -1.1 | -1.4 | 31 | D +0.1 | D +0.1 | D +0.2 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
15 | 15 | SurveyUSA | 325 | 790 | yes | partial | IVR/Online/Live | no | -1.1 | -0.8 | A | D +0.1 | 90% | 19% | 4.6 | 5.9 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.0 | -0.8 | 628 | D +0.1 | D +0.1 | R +0.3 | 5.0 | 0.12 |
17 | 17 | Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) | 92 | 18 | yes | yes | Live | no | -1.4 | -0.7 | A/B° | D +0.0 | 94% | 6% | 4.1 | 5.5 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -0.5 | -0.7 | 17 | D +0.1 | D +0.0 | D +3.1 | 4.7 | 0.25 |
27 | 27 | High Point University | 139 | 2 | yes | yes | Live | no | -5.2 | -0.6 | A/B° | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 1.0 | 5.2 | -4.1 | -5.2 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 2 | D +0.1 | D +0.0 | D +1.8 | 3.3 | 0.81 |
58 | 58 | CNN/Opinion Research Corp. | 37 | 98 | yes | yes | Live | no | -0.2 | -0.1 | B+ | D +0.1 | 72% | 24% | 5.4 | 6.0 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 70 | D +0.1 | D +0.1 | D +0.2 | 4.6 | 0.2 |
32 | 32 | Winthrop University | 386 | 1 | yes | yes | Live | no | -4.3 | -0.5 | A/B° | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.2 | 4.6 | -4.3 | -4.3 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 1 | D +0.2 | D +0.0 | R +0.9 | 3.8 | 0.61 |
54 | 54 | Quinnipiac University | 267 | 204 | yes | yes | Live | no | -0.1 | -0.2 | B+ | D +0.2 | 83% | 25% | 4.6 | 5.5 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 152 | D +0.2 | D +0.2 | D +0.5 | 5.2 | 0.0 |
75 | 75 | University of Washington | 364 | 9 | no | yes | Live | no | -1.5 | 0.1 | B/C° | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.7 | 5.6 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 9 | D +0.3 | D +0.1 | D +3.4 | 5.3 | 0.42 |
90 | 90 | Market Research Insight | 185 | 9 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.4 | 0.2 | B/C° | D +0.1 | 100% | 22% | 4.0 | 5.1 | -0.9 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 7 | D +0.3 | D +0.1 | D +1.9 | 6.9 | 0.0 |
92 | 92 | Public Policy Polling | 263 | 418 | no | no | IVR/Online/Text | no | -0.3 | 0.2 | B | D +0.3 | 80% | 31% | 5.0 | 5.4 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 298 | D +0.3 | D +0.3 | D +0.9 | 4.6 | 0.0 |
117 | 117 | Victory Research | 437 | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | -5.4 | 0.3 | B/C° | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.3 | 4.1 | -3.5 | -5.4 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 1 | D +0.3 | D +0.0 | 0.0 | ||
174 | 174 | Voter/Consumer Research | 371 | 6 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.9 | 0.4 | B/C° | D +0.0 | 100% | 50% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 0.0 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 6 | D +0.3 | D +0.0 | R +3.9 | 2.5 | 1.19 |
234 | 234 | Ipsos | 154 | 66 | yes | no | Online | no | 0.3 | 0.5 | B- | D +0.2 | 71% | 23% | 4.5 | 4.8 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 60 | D +0.3 | D +0.2 | D +0.8 | 3.5 | 0.16 |
61 | 61 | Public Religion Research Institute | 428 | 1 | yes | partial | Online/Live | no | -2.7 | -0.1 | A/B° | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.4 | 5.1 | -4.4 | -2.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 1 | D +0.4 | D +0.0 | D +1.6 | 2.0 | 1.23 |
170 | 170 | YouGov | 391 | 395 | no | no | Online | no | -0.1 | 0.4 | B- | D +0.4 | 89% | 30% | 5.0 | 5.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 347 | D +0.4 | D +0.4 | D +0.3 | 4.6 | 0.0 |
40 | 40 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 258 | 33 | yes | yes | Live | no | -0.1 | -0.4 | A/B° | D +0.2 | 70% | 30% | 4.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 31 | D +0.5 | D +0.2 | R +0.2 | 4.6 | 0.0 |
67 | 67 | Harper Polling | 132 | 11 | no | partial | IVR/Live | no | -1.9 | 0.0 | B/C° | D +0.1 | 91% | 18% | 3.6 | 6.0 | -2.2 | -1.9 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 8 | D +0.5 | D +0.1 | R +0.6 | 5.3 | 0.0 |
19 | 19 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain) | 27 | 7 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.4 | -0.7 | A/B° | D +0.0 | 71% | 0% | 3.5 | 6.5 | -2.9 | -2.4 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 5 | D +0.6 | D +0.0 | R +2.1 | 9.4 | 0.0 |
197 | 197 | Vox Populi Polling | 372 | 19 | no | no | IVR/Online | no | -0.9 | 0.5 | B/C° | D +0.3 | 74% | 16% | 4.3 | 5.4 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 19 | D +0.6 | D +0.3 | R +1.4 | 4.8 | 0.14 |
203 | 203 | GfK Group | 115 | 21 | yes | no | Online | no | 0.1 | 0.5 | B/C° | D +0.2 | 88% | 19% | 3.9 | 5.0 | -0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 21 | D +0.6 | D +0.2 | D +1.2 | 4.2 | 0.44 |
254 | 254 | Howey Politics/DePauw University | 142 | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | 1.2 | 0.6 | B/C° | D +0.1 | 57% | 29% | 6.8 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 6 | D +0.6 | D +0.1 | D +1.3 | 6.1 | 0.0 |
310 | 310 | Capital Survey Research Center | 44 | 11 | no | no | Landline | no | -0.9 | 0.9 | B/C° | D +0.0 | 36% | 55% | 7.8 | 7.2 | 0.8 | -0.9 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 4 | D +0.6 | D +0.0 | D +1.1 | 8.7 | 0.0 |
331 | 331 | Morning Consult | 218 | 12 | no | no | Online | no | 0.2 | 1.0 | B/C° | D +0.2 | 75% | 25% | 3.0 | 3.5 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 12 | D +0.6 | D +0.2 | R +0.6 | 3.6 | 0.0 |
18 | 18 | CBS News/New York Times | 36 | 54 | yes | yes | Live | no | -0.9 | -0.7 | A | D +0.4 | 77% | 28% | 4.5 | 5.4 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -0.5 | -0.7 | 44 | D +0.7 | D +0.4 | D +1.8 | 4.2 | 0.11 |
87 | 87 | KRC/Communications Research | 160 | 22 | no | yes* | Live* | no | -0.6 | 0.2 | B/C° | D +0.1 | 91% | 41% | 6.9 | 7.3 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 11 | D +0.7 | D +0.1 | D +2.5 | 6.4 | 0.0 |
341 | 341 | Strategic National | 318 | 2 | no | no | IVR | no | -6.9 | 1.1 | B/C° | D +0.1 | 25% | 0% | 0.7 | 5.1 | -4.2 | -6.9 | -0.6 | 1.1 | 2 | D +0.7 | D +0.1 | R +4.8 | 5.6 | 0.0 |
42 | 42 | Suffolk University | 323 | 79 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.8 | -0.4 | A- | D +0.5 | 80% | 24% | 4.9 | 6.5 | -1.5 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 49 | D +0.8 | D +0.5 | D +1.8 | 5.8 | 0.0 |
159 | 159 | Wood Communications Group | 388 | 1 | no | yes* | Live* | no | -4.3 | 0.4 | B/C° | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.8 | 6.4 | -5.4 | -4.3 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1 | D +0.8 | D +0.0 | D +3.0 | 2.0 | 3.28 |
3 | 3 | ABC News/Washington Post | 3 | 63 | yes | yes | Live | no | -1.5 | -1.3 | A+ | D +0.6 | 79% | 5% | 2.8 | 4.6 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.1 | -1.3 | 58 | D +0.9 | D +0.6 | D +1.5 | 3.8 | 0.02 |
11 | 11 | Data Orbital | 73 | 8 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.8 | -0.9 | A/B° | D +0.3 | 100% | 0% | 2.2 | 5.3 | -3.0 | -2.8 | -0.8 | -0.9 | 8 | D +0.9 | D +0.3 | R +1.4 | 3.7 | 0.73 |
34 | 34 | Indiana University | 149 | 2 | yes | yes | Live | no | -4.5 | -0.5 | A/B° | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.9 | 6.1 | -5.1 | -4.5 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 2 | D +0.9 | D +0.0 | D +4.1 | 0.0 | |
52 | 52 | St. Norbert College | 313 | 12 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.4 | -0.2 | A/B° | D +0.2 | 88% | 0% | 3.9 | 6.8 | -2.7 | -2.4 | -0.7 | -0.2 | 11 | D +0.9 | D +0.2 | D +2.9 | 5.1 | 0.23 |
81 | 81 | Keating Research Inc. | 161 | 5 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.1 | 0.1 | B/C° | D +0.2 | 80% | 0% | 2.4 | 5.0 | -2.4 | -2.1 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 5 | D +0.9 | D +0.2 | D +3.0 | 3.4 | 0.76 |
149 | 149 | Louis Harris & Associates | 173 | 2 | no | yes* | Live* | no | -4.9 | 0.4 | B/C° | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 0.9 | 5.1 | -4.0 | -4.9 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 2 | D +0.9 | D +0.0 | D +5.4 | 5.5 | 0.0 |
173 | 173 | Franklin & Marshall College | 106 | 21 | yes | partial | Online/Live | no | 0.9 | 0.4 | B/C° | D +0.4 | 86% | 29% | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 18 | D +0.9 | D +0.4 | D +2.0 | 5.5 | 0.15 |
225 | 225 | Southern Opinion Research | 311 | 2 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 2.3 | 0.5 | B/C° | D +0.0 | 100% | 50% | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2 | D +0.9 | D +0.0 | D +4.5 | 4.0 | 0.56 |
381 | 381 | Critical Insights | 64 | 17 | no | partial | Online/Live | no | 2.0 | 1.3 | C/D° | D +0.3 | 88% | 41% | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 15 | D +0.9 | D +0.3 | R +1.8 | 11.3 | 0.0 |
8 | 8 | Marquette University Law School | 195 | 11 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.4 | -1.0 | A/B° | D +0.3 | 77% | 9% | 2.8 | 5.6 | -2.6 | -2.4 | -0.8 | -1.0 | 8 | D +1.0 | D +0.3 | R +0.2 | 4.9 | 0.0 |
14 | 14 | Grove Insight | 129 | 29 | no | yes | Live | no | -2.8 | -0.8 | A/B° | D +0.5 | 90% | 7% | 3.1 | 5.8 | -2.4 | -2.8 | -1.4 | -0.8 | 29 | D +1.0 | D +0.5 | D +3.4 | 3.6 | 0.71 |
224 | 224 | West Chester University | 377 | 7 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.0 | 0.5 | B/C° | D +0.1 | 100% | 29% | 5.2 | 5.4 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 7 | D +1.0 | D +0.1 | D +2.3 | 3.7 | 0.96 |
239 | 239 | NPR | 222 | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.9 | 0.5 | B/C° | D +0.1 | 17% | 33% | 5.0 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3 | D +1.0 | D +0.1 | D +1.0 | 2.0 | 0.63 |
300 | 300 | Gravis Marketing | 124 | 127 | no | partial | IVR/Online/Live | no | 0.4 | 0.8 | C+ | D +0.9 | 67% | 31% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 100 | D +1.0 | D +0.9 | R +0.2 | 4.3 | 0.0 |
350 | 350 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 193 | 9 | no | yes | Live | no | 2.2 | 1.1 | B/C° | D +0.2 | 33% | 78% | 10.4 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 5 | D +1.0 | D +0.2 | D +2.0 | 5.6 | 0.66 |
39 | 39 | University of Florida | 349 | 1 | yes | yes | Live | no | -1.0 | -0.4 | A/B° | D +0.0 | 50% | 0% | 1.1 | 4.6 | -3.4 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 1 | D +1.1 | D +0.0 | R +0.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
333 | 333 | University of Texas | 363 | 4 | no | no | Online | no | -5.0 | 1.0 | B/C° | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.2 | 5.6 | -4.3 | -5.0 | -0.6 | 1.0 | 4 | D +1.1 | D +0.1 | D +2.8 | 0.0 | |
4 | 4 | Elway Research | 87 | 21 | yes | yes | Live | no | -2.5 | -1.2 | A/B° | D +0.5 | 90% | 5% | 3.9 | 6.3 | -2.2 | -2.5 | -1.0 | -1.2 | 20 | D +1.2 | D +0.5 | D +3.7 | 4.5 | 0.37 |
356 | 356 | USC Dornsife/LA Times | 343 | 6 | yes | no | Online | no | 3.5 | 1.2 | B/C° | D +0.3 | 67% | 83% | 5.3 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 6 | D +1.2 | D +0.3 | D +1.1 | 9.0 | 0.0 |
45 | 45 | University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) | 365 | 6 | yes | yes* | Live* | no | -0.3 | -0.3 | A/B° | D +0.1 | 83% | 17% | 6.9 | 5.9 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 5 | D +1.3 | D +0.1 | D +1.7 | 4.0 | 0.88 |
91 | 91 | Orion Strategies | 246 | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | -4.0 | 0.2 | B/C° | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.1 | 6.6 | -3.3 | -4.0 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 3 | D +1.3 | D +0.1 | D +6.3 | 2.6 | 0.35 |
258 | 258 | Glengariff Group Inc. | 117 | 9 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.8 | 0.6 | B/C° | D +0.3 | 78% | 33% | 5.1 | 5.8 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 8 | D +1.3 | D +0.3 | D +3.0 | 4.8 | 0.22 |
357 | 357 | Forward Strategies | 102 | 2 | no | no | IVR | no | -2.8 | 1.2 | B/C° | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.3 | 5.2 | -3.7 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 2 | D +1.3 | D +0.1 | D +3.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 |
419 | 419 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 213 | 62 | no | no | IVR/Online | no | 1.9 | 2.0 | D | D +0.8 | 63% | 42% | 7.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 40 | D +1.3 | D +0.8 | R +0.4 | 5.4 | 0.0 |
290 | 290 | Southeastern Louisiana University | 309 | 8 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 2.2 | 0.7 | B/C° | D +0.2 | 88% | 38% | 6.6 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 8 | D +1.4 | D +0.2 | R +1.3 | 4.9 | 0.15 |
391 | 391 | RAND (American Life Panel) | 270 | 4 | no | no | Online | no | 1.3 | 1.4 | C/D° | D +0.2 | 100% | 25% | 2.7 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 4 | D +1.4 | D +0.2 | D +3.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 |
96 | 96 | Pew Research Center | 253 | 21 | yes | partial | Online/Live | no | 0.7 | 0.2 | B/C° | D +0.6 | 60% | 29% | 3.5 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 21 | D +1.5 | D +0.6 | D +0.9 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
337 | 337 | Change Research | 48 | 57 | no | no | Online | no | 0.6 | 1.0 | C | D +1.1 | 78% | 33% | 5.5 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 56 | D +1.5 | D +1.1 | D +1.7 | 5.9 | 0.0 |
136 | 136 | Research 2000 | 281 | 278 | no | yes* | Live* | yes | -0.1 | 0.4 | F | D +1.4 | 88% | 22% | 5.5 | 5.8 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 246 | D +1.6 | D +1.4 | D +1.2 | 4.7 | 0.23 |
165 | 165 | Bendixen & Amandi International | 29 | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.0 | 0.4 | B/C° | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 3.0 | 4.9 | -1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2 | D +1.6 | D +0.1 | D +3.0 | 0.0 | |
185 | 185 | University of North Carolina | 359 | 1 | no | yes* | Live* | no | -3.0 | 0.4 | B/C° | D +0.0 | 100% | 0% | 1.6 | 5.5 | -3.7 | -3.0 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1 | D +1.6 | D +0.0 | R +1.3 | 1.0 | 2.97 |
319 | 319 | Marketing Workshop | 194 | 7 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 3.4 | 0.9 | B/C° | D +0.2 | 57% | 57% | 9.7 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 7 | D +1.6 | D +0.2 | D +0.7 | 2.6 | 1.83 |
349 | 349 | OnPoint | 240 | 4 | no | no | IVR | no | -2.3 | 1.1 | B/C° | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.7 | 5.3 | -3.5 | -2.3 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 4 | D +1.6 | D +0.1 | D +2.3 | 3.7 | 0.79 |
367 | 367 | Roanoke College | 292 | 15 | yes | yes | Live | no | 4.2 | 1.2 | B/C° | D +0.5 | 77% | 60% | 8.9 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 12 | D +1.6 | D +0.5 | D +1.5 | 5.4 | 0.0 |
43 | 43 | NBC News/Wall Street Journal | 221 | 29 | yes | yes | Live | no | -0.6 | -0.4 | A/B° | D +0.8 | 74% | 14% | 4.0 | 5.0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 24 | D +1.7 | D +0.8 | D +1.3 | 2.9 | 0.53 |
122 | 122 | Pharos Research Group | 254 | 31 | no | yes | Live | yes | -0.1 | 0.3 | F | D +0.9 | 92% | 16% | 4.0 | 5.0 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 31 | D +1.7 | D +0.9 | D +0.9 | 4.4 | 0.34 |
158 | 158 | Central Surveys Inc. | 46 | 1 | no | yes* | Live* | no | -3.5 | 0.4 | B/C° | D +0.0 | 0% | 0% | 1.7 | 5.7 | -3.8 | -3.5 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1 | D +1.7 | D +0.0 | D +2.3 | 0.0 | |
302 | 302 | Research America Inc. | 282 | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | 3.1 | 0.8 | B/C° | D +0.1 | 100% | 33% | 14.4 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1 | D +1.7 | D +0.1 | R +1.6 | 11.9 | 0.0 |
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CREATE TABLE "pollster-ratings/2019/pollster-ratings" ( "Pollster" TEXT, "Pollster Rating ID" INTEGER, "# of Polls" INTEGER, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper" TEXT, "Live Caller With Cellphones" TEXT, "Methodology" TEXT, "Banned by 538" TEXT, "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus" REAL, "Predictive Plus-Minus" REAL, "538 Grade" TEXT, "Mean-Reverted Bias" TEXT, "Races Called Correctly" TEXT, "Misses Outside MOE" TEXT, "Simple Average Error" REAL, "Simple Expected Error" REAL, "Simple Plus-Minus" REAL, "Advanced Plus-Minus" REAL, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus" REAL, "Predictive Plus-Minus" REAL, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis" INTEGER, "Bias" TEXT, "Mean-Reverted Bias.1" TEXT, "House Effect" TEXT, "Average Distance from Polling Average (ADPA)" REAL, "Herding Penalty" REAL );