polls/pres_pollaverages_1968-2016

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files: - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/president_primary_polls.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/president_primary_polls_historical.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/president_polls.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/president_polls_historical.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/senate_polls.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/senate_polls_historical.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/house_polls.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/house_polls_historical.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/governor_polls.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/governor_polls_historical.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/president_approval_polls.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/generic_ballot_polls.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/generic_ballot_polls_historical.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-data/pres_primary_avgs_2020.csv - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_poll_averages_2020.csv

Polls

Current polls files contain data since the most recent election. Historical files contain data prior to the most recent election.

*Historical approval polls prior to the Trump presidency are not available, however The Roper Center maintains a collection of historical approval polls.

**Historical vice presidential approval polls prior to the Biden presidency are not available.

***At this time, we are tracking only post-2020 Trump favorability. Favorability polls prior to this time are not available.

Polling Averages

Please see What Makes Our New 2020 Democratic Primary Polling Averages Different for more information about the methodology used to calculate polling averages. For more information about the general election polling averages, please see Our New Polling Averages Show Biden Leads Trump By 9 Points Nationally .

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

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Link rowid ▼ cycle state modeldate candidate_name candidate_id pct_estimate pct_trend_adjusted timestamp comment election_date election_qdate last_qdate last_enddate _medpoly2 trend_medpoly2 _shortpoly0 trend_shortpoly0 sum_weight_medium sum_weight_short sum_influence sum_nat_influence _minpoints _defaultbasetime _numloops _state_houseeffects_weight _state_trendline_weight _out_of_state_house_discount _house_effects_multiplier _attenuate_endpoints _nonlinear_polynomial_degree _shortpoly_combpoly_weight _nat_shortpoly_combpoly_weight
101 101 2016 South Carolina 3/4/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 42.14941 40.78539 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 6 11/16/2015     42.14941 40.785389 0.7809128 0.7809128 0.7809128 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
102 102 2016 Texas 3/4/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 44.02904 43.85017 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 107 2/22/2016     44.029037 43.85017 1.799316 1.799316 1.799316 1.042643 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
103 103 2016 Utah 3/4/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 29.14072 27.53895 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 34 12/14/2015     29.140722 27.538951 0.5865651 0.5865651 0.5865651 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
104 104 2016 Virginia 3/4/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 49.96833 49.48146 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 105 2/22/2016 49.507511 49.468679 50.060497 49.484021 2.093773 2.093773 1.360229 0.3552939 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
105 105 2016 West Virginia 3/4/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 24.0 23.92601 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 107 2/22/2016     24.0 23.926011 0.5626372 0.5626372 0.5626372 0.3260293 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
106 106 2016 Wisconsin 3/4/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 48.39362 47.9726 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 105 2/21/2016 48.303799 48.275815 48.411589 47.911957 3.306806 3.306806 2.057189 0.5238943 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
107 107 2016 Alabama 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 70.11221 68.20728 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 66 1/12/2016     70.112206 68.207283 1.293506 1.293506 1.293506 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
108 108 2016 Alaska 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 51.63105 49.11471 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 63 1/12/2016     51.631054 49.114708 0.8274046 0.8274046 0.8274046 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
109 109 2016 Arizona 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 44.0 40.35513 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 30 12/9/2015     44.0 40.355125 0.8299773 0.8299773 0.8299773 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
110 110 2016 Colorado 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 45.95209 43.027 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 113 2/29/2016     45.952087 43.027004 2.209496 2.209496 1.012831 0.6198347 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
111 111 2016 Florida 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 46.54695 44.20437 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 110 2/25/2016 47.395423 46.218427 46.377259 43.801561 4.328866 4.328866 2.770836 0.824607 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
112 112 2016 Georgia 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 49.98361 49.16422 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 108 2/23/2016     49.983612 49.164223 1.775305 1.775305 1.775305 1.028729 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
113 113 2016 Illinois 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 27.5 25.17577 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 63 1/9/2016     27.500001 25.175769 0.7289574 0.7289574 0.7289574 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
114 114 2016 Iowa 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 43.18599 40.63622 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 63 1/10/2016 43.199732 40.945949 43.183244 40.574271 5.338463 5.338463 4.136615 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
115 115 2016 Kansas 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 50.45465 49.44854 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 108 2/26/2016     50.454655 49.44854 0.3886382 0.3886382 0.3886382 0.2252028 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
116 116 2016 Michigan 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 38.92251 38.29959 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 116 3/3/2016 38.488836 38.235466 39.00924 38.312415 4.180455 4.180455 3.278449 2.828244 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
117 117 2016 Minnesota 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 40.26071 37.83764 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 73 1/20/2016     40.260708 37.837635 1.084677 1.084677 1.084677 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
118 118 2016 Missouri 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 43.0 43.0 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 118 3/4/2016     43.0 43.0 0.9642869 0.9642869 0.9642869 1.009344 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
119 119 2016 Montana 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 55.84331 51.58743 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 13 11/23/2015     55.843311 51.587433 0.4694052 0.4694052 0.4694052 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
120 120 2016 National 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 42.56142 41.8498 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 117 3/5/2016 41.873454 41.73031 43.249381 41.969283 54.74224 62.88027 7.608812 7.608812 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
121 121 2016 Nevada 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 46.28367 41.09624 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 6 11/16/2015     46.283672 41.096245 0.7816904 0.7816904 0.7816904 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
122 122 2016 New Hampshire 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 41.26382 39.18918 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 109 2/28/2016 40.441275 39.187874 41.428324 39.189443 9.321606 9.321606 3.470526 0.7028892 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
123 123 2016 New Jersey 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 38.23196 37.63839 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 111 2/28/2016     38.231961 37.638393 1.059748 1.059748 1.059748 0.7626413 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
124 124 2016 New York 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 35.19992 34.21104 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 115 3/3/2016     35.199922 34.211043 2.292912 2.393991 1.376205 1.05958 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
125 125 2016 North Carolina 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 44.26052 42.92312 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 102 2/19/2016 43.419237 42.508847 44.428771 43.005977 7.017797 7.017797 5.563706 1.160422 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
126 126 2016 Ohio 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 43.62825 42.71097 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 103 2/20/2016     43.628255 42.71097 2.498985 2.498985 2.428324 0.7815645 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
127 127 2016 Pennsylvania 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 42.75589 42.18092 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 116 3/2/2016     42.755888 42.180915 1.499532 1.499532 1.172013 1.046257 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
128 128 2016 South Carolina 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 46.28367 42.16785 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 6 11/16/2015     46.283672 42.167854 0.7809128 0.7809128 0.7809128 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
129 129 2016 Texas 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 46.98365 45.88467 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 107 2/22/2016     46.98365 45.884674 1.799316 1.799316 1.799316 0.9585683 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
130 130 2016 Utah 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 37.20357 34.12635 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 34 12/14/2015     37.203568 34.126346 0.5865651 0.5865651 0.5865651 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
131 131 2016 Virginia 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 37.47345 35.33734 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 105 2/22/2016 37.289599 36.092716 37.510218 35.186268 2.093773 2.093773 1.360229 0.3211356 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
132 132 2016 West Virginia 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 61.0 60.10392 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 107 2/22/2016     61.0 60.10392 0.5626372 0.5626372 0.5626372 0.2997396 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
133 133 2016 Wisconsin 3/5/2016 Donald Trump 9849 39.85167 37.71172 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 105 2/21/2016 39.554758 38.320636 39.911049 37.589938 3.306806 3.306806 2.057189 0.4735265 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
134 134 2016 Alabama 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 32.67113 32.72914 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 66 1/12/2016     32.671135 32.729142 1.293506 1.293506 1.293506 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
135 135 2016 Alaska 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 44.82418 44.93139 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 63 1/12/2016     44.824185 44.931393 0.8274046 0.8274046 0.8274046 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
136 136 2016 Arizona 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 42.0 39.83689 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 30 12/9/2015     42.0 39.836891 0.8299773 0.8299773 0.8299773 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
137 137 2016 Colorado 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 42.03033 41.15434 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 113 2/29/2016     42.030326 41.154342 2.209496 2.209496 1.012831 0.6198347 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
138 138 2016 Florida 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 44.90737 44.20454 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 110 2/25/2016 44.526399 44.268001 44.983564 44.191849 4.328866 4.328866 2.770836 0.824607 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
139 139 2016 Georgia 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 41.02874 40.86566 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 108 2/23/2016     41.02874 40.865661 1.775305 1.775305 1.775305 1.028729 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
140 140 2016 Illinois 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 36.5 36.61383 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 63 1/9/2016     36.5 36.613827 0.7289574 0.7289574 0.7289574 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
141 141 2016 Iowa 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 45.31902 44.94781 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 63 1/10/2016 45.157765 45.352877 45.351265 44.8668 5.338463 5.338463 4.136615 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
142 142 2016 Kansas 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 37.2366 37.0628 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 108 2/26/2016     37.236603 37.062801 0.3886382 0.3886382 0.3886382 0.2252028 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
143 143 2016 Michigan 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 48.94653 48.93694 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 116 3/3/2016 50.331522 50.375776 48.669528 48.649174 4.180455 4.180455 3.278449 2.828244 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
144 144 2016 Minnesota 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 43.72169 43.46215 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 73 1/20/2016     43.721687 43.46215 1.084677 1.084677 1.084677 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
145 145 2016 Missouri 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 38.0 38.0 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 118 3/4/2016     38.0 38.0 0.9642869 0.9642869 0.9642869 1.009344 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
146 146 2016 Montana 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 31.1697 29.72693 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 13 11/23/2015     31.169702 29.726932 0.4694052 0.4694052 0.4694052 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
147 147 2016 National 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 47.32251 46.99854 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 117 3/5/2016 47.378423 47.076327 47.266603 46.920747 54.74224 62.88027 7.608812 7.608812 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
148 148 2016 Nevada 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 42.14959 40.43193 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 6 11/16/2015     42.14959 40.431934 0.7816904 0.7816904 0.7816904 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
149 149 2016 New Hampshire 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 46.90791 46.40594 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 109 2/28/2016 46.213273 45.777044 47.046833 46.531725 9.321606 9.321606 3.470526 0.7028892 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
150 150 2016 New Jersey 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 52.72885 52.6184 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 111 2/28/2016     52.728851 52.618397 1.059748 1.059748 1.059748 0.7626413 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
151 151 2016 New York 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 57.71981 57.51592 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 115 3/3/2016     57.719807 57.515924 2.292912 2.393991 1.376205 1.05958 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
152 152 2016 North Carolina 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 44.42237 43.98949 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 102 2/19/2016 44.725236 44.450186 44.361804 43.897347 7.017797 7.017797 5.563706 1.160422 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
153 153 2016 Ohio 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 40.64645 40.50122 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 103 2/20/2016     40.646456 40.501223 2.498985 2.498985 2.428324 0.7815645 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
154 154 2016 Pennsylvania 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 44.89699 44.88477 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 116 3/2/2016     44.896993 44.884769 1.499532 1.499532 1.172013 1.046257 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
155 155 2016 South Carolina 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 42.14959 40.71382 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 6 11/16/2015     42.14959 40.713818 0.7809128 0.7809128 0.7809128 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
156 156 2016 Texas 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 44.02908 43.77683 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 107 2/22/2016     44.029079 43.776833 1.799316 1.799316 1.799316 0.9585683 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
157 157 2016 Utah 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 29.14153 27.4586 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 34 12/14/2015     29.141527 27.458595 0.5865651 0.5865651 0.5865651 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
158 158 2016 Virginia 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 49.96838 49.4111 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 105 2/22/2016 49.507499 49.402079 50.060559 49.412902 2.093773 2.093773 1.360229 0.3211356 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
159 159 2016 West Virginia 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 24.0 23.87609 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 107 2/22/2016     24.0 23.876095 0.5626372 0.5626372 0.5626372 0.2997396 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
160 160 2016 Wisconsin 3/5/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 48.39381 47.90538 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 105 2/21/2016 48.303986 48.209398 48.411776 47.844575 3.306806 3.306806 2.057189 0.4735265 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
161 161 2016 Alabama 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 70.11276 68.3612 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 66 1/12/2016     70.112763 68.361199 1.293506 1.293506 1.293506 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
162 162 2016 Alaska 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 51.63168 49.33788 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 63 1/12/2016     51.63168 49.337879 0.8274046 0.8274046 0.8274046 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
163 163 2016 Arizona 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 44.0 40.59718 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 30 12/9/2015     44.0 40.597176 0.8299773 0.8299773 0.8299773 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
164 164 2016 Colorado 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 45.95271 43.18161 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 113 2/29/2016     45.952711 43.181609 2.209496 2.209496 1.012831 0.5696768 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
165 165 2016 Florida 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 45.61213 44.72843 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 119 3/6/2016 45.701171 45.369262 45.59432 44.600264 7.738587 7.738587 4.927843 4.119669 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
166 166 2016 Georgia 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 50.00079 49.37793 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 108 2/23/2016     50.000786 49.37793 1.775305 1.775305 1.775305 0.9528331 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
167 167 2016 Illinois 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 27.5 25.37565 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 63 1/9/2016     27.500001 25.375649 0.7289574 0.7289574 0.7289574 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
168 168 2016 Iowa 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 43.18759 40.83474 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 63 1/10/2016 43.200505 41.137164 43.185009 40.774259 5.338463 5.338463 4.136615 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
169 169 2016 Kansas 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 50.48154 49.68934 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 108 2/26/2016     50.481537 49.689339 0.3886382 0.3886382 0.3886382 0.2085881 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
170 170 2016 Michigan 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 38.92224 38.24024 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 116 3/3/2016 38.488521 38.1125 39.008981 38.265787 4.180455 4.180455 3.278449 2.599405 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
171 171 2016 Minnesota 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 40.26132 38.04572 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 73 1/20/2016     40.261318 38.04572 1.084677 1.084677 1.084677 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
172 172 2016 Missouri 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 43.0 42.8773 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 118 3/4/2016     43.0 42.8773 0.9642869 0.9642869 0.9642869 0.9236742 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
173 173 2016 Montana 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 55.86996 51.82148 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 13 11/23/2015     55.869961 51.82148 0.4694052 0.4694052 0.4694052 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
174 174 2016 National 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 41.99857 41.54527 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 119 3/6/2016 41.214372 41.225082 42.782776 41.865447 57.88774 66.45657 10.84921 10.84921 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
175 175 2016 Nevada 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 46.30037 41.34627 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 6 11/16/2015     46.300365 41.346267 0.7816904 0.7816904 0.7816904 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
176 176 2016 New Hampshire 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 41.26297 39.36347 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 109 2/28/2016 40.442194 39.317586 41.427126 39.372642 9.321606 9.321606 3.470526 0.6624385 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
177 177 2016 New Jersey 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 38.23256 37.77042 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 111 2/28/2016     38.232564 37.770416 1.059748 1.059748 1.059748 0.7026823 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
178 178 2016 New York 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 35.20051 34.29632 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 115 3/3/2016     35.200512 34.296322 2.292912 2.393991 1.376205 0.9782382 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
179 179 2016 North Carolina 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 44.26368 43.12591 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 102 2/19/2016 43.422428 42.715793 44.431933 43.207937 7.017797 7.017797 5.563706 1.115024 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
180 180 2016 Ohio 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 43.43822 43.0882 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 119 3/6/2016 42.402993 42.318277 43.645262 43.242185 4.977781 4.977781 3.170675 3.170675 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
181 181 2016 Pennsylvania 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 42.76368 42.13163 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 116 3/2/2016     42.763679 42.131632 1.499532 1.499532 1.172013 0.9646578 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
182 182 2016 South Carolina 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 46.30037 42.37117 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 6 11/16/2015     46.300365 42.37117 0.7809128 0.7809128 0.7809128 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
183 183 2016 Texas 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 47.00079 46.19541 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 107 2/22/2016     47.000786 46.195412 1.799316 1.799316 1.799316 0.889939 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
184 184 2016 Utah 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 37.22932 34.39339 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 34 12/14/2015     37.229324 34.393387 0.5865651 0.5865651 0.5865651 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
185 185 2016 Virginia 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 37.47335 35.55059 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 105 2/22/2016 37.289337 36.312216 37.51016 35.398265 2.093773 2.093773 1.360229 0.2999914 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
186 186 2016 West Virginia 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 61.0 60.31111 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 107 2/22/2016     61.0 60.311108 0.5626372 0.5626372 0.5626372 0.2782795 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
187 187 2016 Wisconsin 3/6/2016 Donald Trump 9849 39.85228 37.90652 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 105 2/21/2016 39.555366 38.523296 39.911657 37.783163 3.306806 3.306806 2.057189 0.4423487 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
188 188 2016 Alabama 3/6/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 32.67125 33.91101 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 66 1/12/2016     32.671245 33.911007 1.293506 1.293506 1.293506 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
189 189 2016 Alaska 3/6/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 44.82431 46.4332 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 63 1/12/2016     44.824307 46.433205 0.8274046 0.8274046 0.8274046 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
190 190 2016 Arizona 3/6/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 42.0 41.61135 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 30 12/9/2015     42.0 41.611351 0.8299773 0.8299773 0.8299773 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
191 191 2016 Colorado 3/6/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 42.04305 42.12997 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 113 2/29/2016     42.043047 42.129968 2.209496 2.209496 1.012831 0.5696768 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
192 192 2016 Florida 3/6/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 45.76928 46.0689 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 119 3/6/2016 45.87203 45.933551 45.748723 46.095974 7.738587 7.738587 4.927843 4.119669 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
193 193 2016 Georgia 3/6/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 41.06043 41.5371 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 108 2/23/2016     41.060429 41.537098 1.775305 1.775305 1.775305 0.9528331 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
194 194 2016 Illinois 3/6/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 36.5 38.21031 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 63 1/9/2016     36.5 38.210308 0.7289574 0.7289574 0.7289574 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
195 195 2016 Iowa 3/6/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 45.31683 46.31544 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 63 1/10/2016 45.155105 46.667123 45.349178 46.245104 5.338463 5.338463 4.136615 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
196 196 2016 Kansas 3/6/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 37.18583 37.80215 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 108 2/26/2016     37.185825 37.802155 0.3886382 0.3886382 0.3886382 0.2085881 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
197 197 2016 Michigan 3/6/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 48.94596 49.29702 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 116 3/3/2016 50.330837 50.487478 48.66899 49.058933 4.180455 4.180455 3.278449 2.599405 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
198 198 2016 Minnesota 3/6/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 43.72181 44.9573 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 73 1/20/2016     43.72181 44.957298 1.084677 1.084677 1.084677 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
199 199 2016 Missouri 3/6/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 38.0 37.97491 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 118 3/4/2016     38.0 37.974911 0.9642869 0.9642869 0.9642869 0.9236742 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5
200 200 2016 Montana 3/6/2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton 9207 31.12158 30.94977 18:51:39 14 Jun 2020 full archive 1968-2016 11/8/2016 448 13 11/23/2015     31.121576 30.94977 0.4694052 0.4694052 0.4694052 0.0 5 20 5 0.5 0.5 0.02 1 yes 2 0.8 0.5

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CREATE TABLE "polls/pres_pollaverages_1968-2016" (
"cycle" INTEGER,
  "state" TEXT,
  "modeldate" TEXT,
  "candidate_name" TEXT,
  "candidate_id" INTEGER,
  "pct_estimate" REAL,
  "pct_trend_adjusted" REAL,
  "timestamp" TEXT,
  "comment" TEXT,
  "election_date" TEXT,
  "election_qdate" INTEGER,
  "last_qdate" INTEGER,
  "last_enddate" TEXT,
  "_medpoly2" REAL,
  "trend_medpoly2" REAL,
  "_shortpoly0" REAL,
  "trend_shortpoly0" REAL,
  "sum_weight_medium" REAL,
  "sum_weight_short" REAL,
  "sum_influence" REAL,
  "sum_nat_influence" REAL,
  "_minpoints" INTEGER,
  "_defaultbasetime" INTEGER,
  "_numloops" INTEGER,
  "_state_houseeffects_weight" REAL,
  "_state_trendline_weight" REAL,
  "_out_of_state_house_discount" REAL,
  "_house_effects_multiplier" INTEGER,
  "_attenuate_endpoints" TEXT,
  "_nonlinear_polynomial_degree" INTEGER,
  "_shortpoly_combpoly_weight" REAL,
  "_nat_shortpoly_combpoly_weight" REAL
);