2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140618-210231.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 64.31 1.1809 1.1672 0.0257 0.1589 0.022702386541684 0.004654411100851 0.000615249506995 8.6032062043e-05
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8229 0.4464 0.9056 0.9825 0.700236407920612 0.498704393708896 0.316513259792289 0.147011471034192
3 3 Australia AUS b 68.89 1.6481 1.2794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 4 Belgium BEL h 81.76 2.1436 0.762 0.6425 0.8654 0.406995914716177 0.155334334796855 0.063042912019565 0.017536110533483
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.6 2.3292 0.9776 0.0372 0.5618 0.236366269477618 0.082501376712806 0.022366996804071 0.007599528714147
6 6 Brazil BRA a 90.87 3.17 0.531 0.9189 0.9948 0.75114360422375 0.611675784011287 0.451716852995853 0.345518260680466
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.81 2.7213 0.703 0.3602 1.0 0.422043359476595 0.264351245857364 0.135270634921715 0.056964850151098
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.16 2.213 1.0064 0.2286 0.7925 0.400182077068373 0.128122556349303 0.045567543041717 0.011213923175862
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 70.21 1.3672 0.9711 0.0029 0.0128 0.002568775869614 0.000828834523154 0.000194715096907 3.1246018133e-05
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3867 0.4172 0.7478 0.9593 0.634701273943408 0.238733407832995 0.119020147067437 0.055087770028146
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.5 1.5935 0.6832 0.417 0.7222 0.289390205435405 0.079464233757221 0.025166206724685 0.005638433200245
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.23 1.8127 0.9277 0.0162 0.1786 0.048639311668872 0.020540848988774 0.006319829683487 0.001188089965774
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 79.87 1.9878 0.7975 0.0315 0.2049 0.066795845049092 0.029972722614007 0.011236474426164 0.002787596899624
14 14 England ENG d 82.22 2.1666 0.742 0.0812 0.323 0.146759007296898 0.042286962214316 0.016520124815555 0.005517341260483
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.76 2.6117 0.6396 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 16 France FRA e 86.92 2.5397 0.5798 0.6927 0.921 0.561254358492376 0.276746127237731 0.113409073241858 0.051729502212769
17 17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2839 0.6908 0.8807 0.9822 0.800594164844926 0.55259238107151 0.274448749136614 0.168769898475199
18 18 Ghana GHA g 76.42 1.8491 0.9418 0.0037 0.1066 0.048058401512829 0.013544686984751 0.004645779600271 0.000911888814028
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.2 1.2966 0.6725 0.0114 0.145 0.059072719649341 0.016292587484352 0.004493626238058 0.000771829408931
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.16 1.508 1.2109 0.005 0.0676 0.011251319041891 0.00328199569265 0.000781182476961 9.8590062713e-05
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1905 0.7931 0.0219 0.1884 0.050166750568752 0.011046627124353 0.001899258648196 0.000358948858362
22 22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0408 0.8109 0.4418 0.746 0.33709886436729 0.107515201317823 0.038984898863786 0.010190187644404
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.07 2.0699 1.334 0.0122 0.1032 0.040289673605102 0.010183968188977 0.002623826460628 0.000408387941588
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6875 1.0839 0.132 0.4164 0.093993419395539 0.024567742512948 0.005072215953375 0.000918136177187
25 25 Mexico MEX a 78.6 1.4824 0.5291 0.062 0.8138 0.243424628301799 0.109425023421283 0.036379305556845 0.007646374122124
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8048 0.7484 0.6398 1.0 0.532180320459397 0.344559196820627 0.180135201614392 0.071597149837647
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 74.94 1.5518 0.8196 0.0353 0.2673 0.086333599069643 0.023413693342426 0.005014544803781 0.001164456363665
28 28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0416 0.9083 0.0095 0.2271 0.113196277257378 0.036798048284872 0.014033789688523 0.003172900329435
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.28 1.6108 0.6428 0.1998 0.5593 0.172943597410611 0.058807472241284 0.016541230473767 0.004108230179172
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.074 0.8956 0.2708 0.8065 0.287595450380041 0.114899089319933 0.038626739465304 0.009910766671599
31 31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.193 0.8631 0.06 0.2088 0.092506178634151 0.026020149232514 0.009743629572356 0.003040961082349
32 32 USA USA g 78.49 2.1028 0.9782 0.1061 0.6841 0.341515838320794 0.113134897254108 0.039616001308846 0.009021138095131

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-210231" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);