world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-210231: 23

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header	Definition
spi	Soccer Power Index
spi_offense	Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense	Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group	Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen	Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter	Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi	Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup	Chance of making it to the final game
win	Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.