forecast-review/forecast_results_2018

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

1,518 rows

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Suggested facets: branch, version, category, Democrat_Won, Republican_Won, uncalled

Link rowid ▼ cycle branch race forecastdate version Democrat_WinProbability Republican_WinProbability category Democrat_Won Republican_Won uncalled
1 2018 Governor AK-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.31095999 0.68904001 Lean R 0 1 0
2 2018 Governor AL-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.016919999999999998 0.98308003 Safe R 0 1 0
3 2018 Governor AR-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.00062000001 0.99937999 Safe R 0 1 0
4 2018 Governor AZ-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.0128 0.98720002 Safe R 0 1 0
5 2018 Governor CA-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.98794001 0.01206 Solid D 1 0 0
6 2018 Governor CO-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.9497 0.050299998 Likely D 1 0 0
7 2018 Governor CT-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.78996003 0.21004 Likely D 1 0 0
8 2018 Governor FL-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.77215999 0.22784001 Likely D 0 1 0
9 2018 Governor GA-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.3224 0.67760003 Lean R 0 1 0
10 2018 Governor HI-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.99853998 0.0014600001000000002 Solid D 1 0 0
11 2018 Governor IA-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.57315999 0.42684001 Tossup (Tilt D) 0 1 0
12 2018 Governor ID-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.0174 0.98259997 Safe R 0 1 0
13 2018 Governor IL-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.83969998 0.1603 Likely D 1 0 0
14 2018 Governor KS-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.42814001 0.57151997 Tossup (Tilt R) 1 0 0
15 2018 Governor MA-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.0007999999799999999 0.99919999 Safe R 0 1 0
16 2018 Governor MD-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.0073199999 0.99268001 Safe R 0 1 0
17 2018 Governor ME-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.94651997 0.053479999 Likely D 1 0 0
18 2018 Governor MI-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.93129998 0.068700001 Likely D 1 0 0
19 2018 Governor MN-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.93074 0.069260001 Likely D 1 0 0
20 2018 Governor NE-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.00942 0.99058002 Safe R 0 1 0
21 2018 Governor NH-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.13988 0.8601200000000001 Likely R 0 1 0
22 2018 Governor NM-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.94032001 0.05968 Likely D 1 0 0
23 2018 Governor NV-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.51521999 0.48478001 Tossup (Tilt D) 1 0 0
24 2018 Governor NY-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.99265999 0.00734 Solid D 1 0 0
25 2018 Governor OH-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.59491998 0.40507999 Tossup (Tilt D) 0 1 0
26 2018 Governor OK-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.14307999999999998 0.8569200000000001 Likely R 0 1 0
27 2018 Governor OR-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.82336003 0.17664000000000002 Likely D 1 0 0
28 2018 Governor PA-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.99048001 0.0095199998 Solid D 1 0 0
29 2018 Governor RI-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.97869998 0.021299999 Solid D 1 0 0
30 2018 Governor SC-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.025580000000000002 0.97442001 Safe R 0 1 0
31 2018 Governor SD-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.36921999 0.63077998 Lean R 0 1 0
32 2018 Governor TN-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.023360001000000002 0.97663999 Safe R 0 1 0
33 2018 Governor TX-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.0047800001 0.99522001 Safe R 0 1 0
34 2018 Governor VT-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.06097999999999999 0.93901998 Likely R 0 1 0
35 2018 Governor WI-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.59653997 0.40346 Tossup (Tilt D) 1 0 0
36 2018 Governor WY-G1 11/6/18 classic 0.0011 0.9989 Safe R 0 1 0
37 2018 House AK-1 11/6/18 classic 0.3475 0.65249997 Lean R 0 1 0
38 2018 House AL-1 11/6/18 classic 0.00044 0.99956 Safe R 0 1 0
39 2018 House AL-2 11/6/18 classic 0.022539998999999998 0.97746003 Safe R 0 1 0
40 2018 House AL-3 11/6/18 classic 0.0018 0.9982 Safe R 0 1 0
41 2018 House AL-4 11/6/18 classic 0.0 1.0 Safe R 0 1 0
42 2018 House AL-5 11/6/18 classic 0.00106 0.99893999 Safe R 0 1 0
43 2018 House AL-6 11/6/18 classic 7.9999998e-05 0.99992001 Safe R 0 1 0
44 2018 House AL-7 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
45 2018 House AR-1 11/6/18 classic 0.00039999998999999995 0.99959999 Safe R 0 1 0
46 2018 House AR-2 11/6/18 classic 0.13928001 0.86071998 Likely R 0 1 0
47 2018 House AR-3 11/6/18 classic 0.0006799999999999999 0.99931997 Safe R 0 1 0
48 2018 House AR-4 11/6/18 classic 0.00031999999 0.99967998 Safe R 0 1 0
49 2018 House AZ-1 11/6/18 classic 0.89223999 0.10776 Likely D 1 0 0
50 2018 House AZ-2 11/6/18 classic 0.96737999 0.032620002 Solid D 1 0 0
51 2018 House AZ-3 11/6/18 classic 0.99992001 7.9999998e-05 Solid D 1 0 0
52 2018 House AZ-4 11/6/18 classic 0.00028000001 0.99971998 Safe R 0 1 0
53 2018 House AZ-5 11/6/18 classic 0.0008599999699999999 0.99914002 Safe R 0 1 0
54 2018 House AZ-6 11/6/18 classic 0.09216000099999999 0.90784001 Likely R 0 1 0
55 2018 House AZ-7 11/6/18 classic 0.99997997 1.9999999e-05 Solid D 1 0 0
56 2018 House AZ-8 11/6/18 classic 0.22824 0.77175999 Likely R 0 1 0
57 2018 House AZ-9 11/6/18 classic 0.99572003 0.00428 Solid D 1 0 0
58 2018 House CA-1 11/6/18 classic 0.21362001 0.78637999 Likely R 0 1 0
59 2018 House CA-10 11/6/18 classic 0.7748 0.2252 Likely D 1 0 0
60 2018 House CA-11 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
61 2018 House CA-12 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
62 2018 House CA-13 11/6/18 classic 0.99997997 1.9999999e-05 Solid D 1 0 0
63 2018 House CA-14 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
64 2018 House CA-15 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
65 2018 House CA-16 11/6/18 classic 0.98181999 0.01818 Solid D 1 0 0
66 2018 House CA-17 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
67 2018 House CA-18 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
68 2018 House CA-19 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
69 2018 House CA-2 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
70 2018 House CA-20 11/6/18 classic 0.99988002 0.00011999999999999999 Solid D 1 0 0
71 2018 House CA-21 11/6/18 classic 0.2102 0.78979999 Likely R 1 0 1
72 2018 House CA-22 11/6/18 classic 0.045960002 0.95403999 Safe R 0 1 0
73 2018 House CA-23 11/6/18 classic 0.00063999998 0.99936002 Safe R 0 1 0
74 2018 House CA-24 11/6/18 classic 0.98526001 0.014740000000000001 Solid D 1 0 0
75 2018 House CA-25 11/6/18 classic 0.63661999 0.36338001 Lean D 1 0 0
76 2018 House CA-26 11/6/18 classic 0.99985999 0.00014 Solid D 1 0 0
77 2018 House CA-27 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
78 2018 House CA-28 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
79 2018 House CA-29 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
80 2018 House CA-3 11/6/18 classic 0.99966002 0.00033999999999999997 Solid D 1 0 0
81 2018 House CA-30 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
82 2018 House CA-31 11/6/18 classic 0.9988600000000001 0.0011399999000000001 Solid D 1 0 0
83 2018 House CA-32 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
84 2018 House CA-33 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
85 2018 House CA-34 11/6/18 classic 0.99993998 5.9999997999999996e-05 Solid D 1 0 0
86 2018 House CA-35 11/6/18 classic 0.99996001 3.9999999e-05 Solid D 1 0 0
87 2018 House CA-36 11/6/18 classic 0.99809998 0.0019 Solid D 1 0 0
88 2018 House CA-37 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
89 2018 House CA-38 11/6/18 classic 0.99997997 1.9999999e-05 Solid D 1 0 0
90 2018 House CA-39 11/6/18 classic 0.58230001 0.41769999 Tossup (Tilt D) 1 0 0
91 2018 House CA-4 11/6/18 classic 0.15448 0.84552002 Likely R 0 1 0
92 2018 House CA-40 11/6/18 classic 0.99981999 0.00018 Solid D 1 0 0
93 2018 House CA-41 11/6/18 classic 0.99985999 0.00014 Solid D 1 0 0
94 2018 House CA-42 11/6/18 classic 0.02314 0.97685999 Safe R 0 1 0
95 2018 House CA-43 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
96 2018 House CA-44 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
97 2018 House CA-45 11/6/18 classic 0.63200003 0.368 Lean D 1 0 0
98 2018 House CA-46 11/6/18 classic 1.0 0.0 Solid D 1 0 0
99 2018 House CA-47 11/6/18 classic 0.99989998 9.9999997e-05 Solid D 1 0 0
100 2018 House CA-48 11/6/18 classic 0.56573999 0.43426001 Tossup (Tilt D) 1 0 0

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CREATE TABLE "forecast-review/forecast_results_2018" (
"cycle" INTEGER,
  "branch" TEXT,
  "race" TEXT,
  "forecastdate" TEXT,
  "version" TEXT,
  "Democrat_WinProbability" REAL,
  "Republican_WinProbability" REAL,
  "category" TEXT,
  "Democrat_Won" INTEGER,
  "Republican_Won" INTEGER,
  "uncalled" INTEGER
);
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