pollster-ratings/2020/pollster-ratings
Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette
453 rows sorted by Mean-Reverted Bias
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Link | rowid | Pollster | Pollster Rating ID | # of Polls | NCPP / AAPOR / Roper | Live Caller With Cellphones | Methodology | Banned by 538 | Predictive Plus-Minus | 538 Grade | Mean-Reverted Bias ▼ | Races Called Correctly | Misses Outside MOE | Simple Average Error | Simple Expected Error | Simple Plus-Minus | Advanced Plus-Minus | Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus | # of Polls for Bias Analysis | Bias | House Effect | Average Distance from Polling Average (ADPA) | Herding Penalty | latest_poll |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
314 | 314 | Marketing Workshop | 194 | 7 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.9 | B/C | D +0.1 | 57% | 57% | 9.7 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 7 | D +1.6 | D +0.7 | 2.6 | 1.83 | 10/28/02 |
322 | 322 | Victoria Research & Consulting | 369 | 1 | no | partial | Live/Text | no | 0.9 | B/C | D +0.1 | 50% | 0% | 8.0 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | D +8.0 | 0.0 | 10/18/04 | ||
343 | 343 | Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | 56 | 5 | no | partial | Live/Text | no | 1.0 | B/C | D +0.1 | 60% | 40% | 8.1 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 3 | D +3.4 | R +2.2 | 3.7 | 0.41 | 2/12/20 |
344 | 344 | Maine People's Resource Center | 180 | 14 | no | no | IVR/Online | no | 1.0 | B/C | D +0.1 | 93% | 36% | 6.4 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 12 | D +0.5 | R +1.2 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 10/25/16 |
355 | 355 | Strategic National | 318 | 2 | no | no | IVR | no | 1.1 | B/C | D +0.1 | 25% | 0% | 0.7 | 5.1 | -4.2 | -7.2 | -0.6 | 2 | D +0.7 | R +4.8 | 5.4 | 0.03 | 11/3/16 |
360 | 360 | Research America Inc. | 282 | 3 | no | partial | Online/Live | no | 1.1 | B/C | D +0.1 | 100% | 33% | 14.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 1 | D +1.7 | R +1.6 | 11.9 | 0.0 | 10/25/18 |
363 | 363 | OnPoint | 240 | 4 | no | no | IVR | no | 1.1 | B/C | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.7 | 5.2 | -3.4 | -2.4 | -0.2 | 4 | D +1.6 | D +2.3 | 3.7 | 0.79 | 11/6/06 |
376 | 376 | Forward Strategies | 102 | 2 | no | no | IVR | no | 1.2 | B/C | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 1.3 | 5.1 | -3.6 | -2.9 | -0.1 | 2 | D +1.3 | D +3.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 10/28/10 |
377 | 377 | CSP Polling | 39 | 1 | no | no | Online | yes | 1.2 | F | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 2.6 | 5.6 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -0.1 | 1 | D +2.6 | R +2.6 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 6/16/17 |
383 | 383 | Crantford Research | 62 | 1 | no | no | Online | no | 1.2 | B/C | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 2.5 | 5.4 | -2.8 | -3.9 | -0.1 | 1 | D +2.5 | D +9.5 | 0.0 | 10/18/10 | |
387 | 387 | Diamond State Consulting Group | 78 | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | 1.3 | B/C | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 4.2 | 5.0 | -0.6 | -1.6 | -0.1 | 1 | D +4.2 | R +5.0 | 5.0 | 0.62 | 10/21/14 |
397 | 397 | Rossman Group | 294 | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | 1.3 | C/D | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 4.2 | 6.5 | -2.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1 | D +4.2 | D +4.7 | 0.0 | 10/18/10 | |
402 | 402 | Iona College | 152 | 1 | no | no | IVR | no | 1.3 | C/D | D +0.1 | 100% | 0% | 4.4 | 5.5 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 1 | D +4.4 | R +1.7 | 1.5 | 2.26 | 10/20/10 |
6 | 6 | Marquette University Law School | 195 | 12 | yes | yes | Live | no | -1.0 | A/B | D +0.2 | 79% | 8% | 2.8 | 5.9 | -2.9 | -2.8 | -0.9 | 8 | D +1.0 | R +0.3 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 3/27/20 |
53 | 53 | Quinnipiac University | 267 | 207 | yes | yes | Live | no | -0.2 | B+ | D +0.2 | 83% | 23% | 4.6 | 5.6 | -0.8 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 153 | D +0.2 | D +0.4 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 11/1/18 |
56 | 56 | St. Norbert College | 313 | 12 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.2 | A/B | D +0.2 | 88% | 0% | 3.9 | 6.7 | -2.7 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 11 | D +0.9 | D +3.0 | 5.3 | 0.22 | 10/20/14 |
92 | 92 | McKeon & Associates | 202 | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.2 | B/C | D +0.2 | 67% | 33% | 2.9 | 5.9 | -2.9 | -4.1 | -0.4 | 2 | D +3.0 | D +0.5 | 12.8 | 0.0 | 3/12/16 |
107 | 107 | APC Research | 4 | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.3 | B/C | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 2.5 | 5.1 | -2.3 | -3.4 | -0.2 | 2 | D +2.5 | D +0.3 | 0.0 | 10/19/14 | |
120 | 120 | Valley Research | 368 | 6 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.3 | B/C | D +0.2 | 83% | 17% | 4.3 | 4.4 | 0.1 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 6 | D +2.4 | D +1.3 | 2.0 | 0.21 | 10/24/04 |
122 | 122 | MSR Group | 178 | 3 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.3 | B/C | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 3.5 | 6.8 | -3.1 | -3.9 | -0.2 | 3 | D +3.5 | D +1.3 | 0.0 | 10/19/04 | |
136 | 136 | Richmond Times-Dispatch | 288 | 4 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.4 | B/C | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 3.3 | 4.9 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -0.1 | 4 | D +2.9 | D +2.4 | 5.0 | 0.17 | 10/23/04 |
140 | 140 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 90 | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.4 | B/C | D +0.2 | 33% | 33% | 5.7 | 6.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 3 | D +2.1 | R +4.5 | 0.0 | 10/17/18 | |
142 | 142 | Winston Group | 385 | 3 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.4 | B/C | D +0.2 | 67% | 33% | 4.2 | 5.3 | -0.9 | -1.5 | -0.1 | 3 | D +3.8 | R +2.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 10/23/08 |
146 | 146 | Knowledge Networks | 164 | 3 | yes | no | Online | no | 0.4 | B/C | D +0.2 | 100% | 33% | 4.2 | 4.5 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 0.0 | 3 | D +4.0 | D +0.6 | 3.1 | 0.16 | 10/22/08 |
153 | 153 | GfK Group | 115 | 21 | yes | no | Online | no | 0.4 | B/C | D +0.2 | 88% | 19% | 3.9 | 5.0 | -0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 21 | D +0.6 | D +1.3 | 4.6 | 0.22 | 10/22/16 |
155 | 155 | Centre College | 47 | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.4 | B/C | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 3.9 | 5.4 | -1.3 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 1 | D +3.9 | D +2.3 | 4.8 | 0.35 | 10/21/16 |
191 | 191 | Feldman Group | 93 | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.4 | B/C | D +0.2 | 50% | 50% | 6.7 | 5.4 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 2 | D +4.1 | D +2.8 | 1.5 | 0.84 | 10/29/12 |
195 | 195 | West Virginia Research Center | 378 | 2 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.5 | B/C | D +0.2 | 50% | 50% | 6.4 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 2 | D +6.4 | D +3.8 | 5.3 | 0.02 | 10/25/00 |
198 | 198 | Zimmerman & Associates/Marketing Intelligence | 394 | 3 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.5 | B/C | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 4.7 | 6.0 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3 | D +3.2 | D +0.7 | 2.2 | 0.72 | 10/18/08 |
206 | 206 | Rice University | 286 | 2 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.5 | B/C | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 5.9 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2 | D +5.9 | D +0.6 | 2.3 | 1.34 | 10/27/02 |
214 | 214 | TMR Research | 328 | 2 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.5 | B/C | D +0.2 | 0% | 50% | 7.9 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 2 | D +7.9 | D +6.7 | 0.0 | 10/18/98 | |
238 | 238 | MarketAide Services Inc. | 191 | 1 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.5 | B/C | D +0.2 | 100% | 100% | 11.2 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 0.1 | 1 | D +11.2 | D +9.5 | 0.0 | 10/19/02 | |
240 | 240 | Abacus Associates | 6 | 2 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.5 | B/C | D +0.2 | 50% | 50% | 8.1 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 2 | D +3.6 | D +6.5 | 0.0 | 10/21/10 | |
242 | 242 | Forman Center | 100 | 2 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.6 | B/C | D +0.2 | 100% | 50% | 11.0 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 0.1 | 2 | D +11.0 | D +17.1 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 10/22/98 |
303 | 303 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 68 | 1 | no | partial | IVR/Live | no | 0.8 | B/C | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 4.5 | 6.2 | -1.6 | -2.0 | -0.1 | 1 | D +4.5 | 0.0 | 10/20/16 | ||
307 | 307 | KG Polling | 502 | 2 | no | partial | Online/Live | yes | 0.8 | F | D +0.2 | 100% | 0% | 2.2 | 5.2 | -2.8 | -1.6 | -0.1 | 2 | D +2.2 | D +1.0 | 1.0 | 1.57 | 3/5/18 |
321 | 321 | 20/20 Insight | 1 | 6 | no | partial | IVR/Live | no | 0.9 | B/C | D +0.2 | 50% | 33% | 12.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 3 | D +1.9 | D +4.3 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 11/1/18 |
346 | 346 | Morning Consult | 218 | 12 | no | no | Online | no | 1.0 | B/C | D +0.2 | 75% | 25% | 3.0 | 3.5 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 12 | D +0.6 | R +0.6 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 11/3/18 |
405 | 405 | co/efficient | 514 | 1 | no | no | IVR/Text | no | 1.3 | C/D | D +0.2 | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 4.1 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1 | D +3.5 | R +0.5 | 3.0 | 1.04 | 9/6/19 |
410 | 410 | RAND (American Life Panel) | 270 | 4 | no | no | Online | no | 1.4 | C/D | D +0.2 | 100% | 25% | 2.7 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 4 | D +1.4 | D +3.7 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 10/26/16 |
440 | 440 | Glascock Group | 116 | 2 | no | no | IVR | no | 1.9 | C/D | D +0.2 | 50% | 100% | 15.5 | 5.1 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 0.6 | 2 | D +3.4 | D +20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 12/2/14 |
9 | 9 | Data Orbital | 73 | 9 | yes | yes | Live | no | -0.9 | A/B | D +0.3 | 94% | 0% | 2.3 | 5.3 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -0.7 | 9 | D +1.2 | R +1.1 | 3.7 | 0.65 | 10/17/18 |
40 | 40 | Emerson College | 88 | 165 | yes | no | IVR/Online/Text | no | -0.4 | A- | D +0.3 | 80% | 24% | 5.4 | 6.2 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.6 | 123 | D +0.4 | R +1.3 | 5.2 | 0.05 | 3/12/20 |
78 | 78 | Public Policy Polling | 263 | 423 | no | no | IVR/Text | no | 0.1 | B | D +0.3 | 80% | 31% | 5.0 | 5.5 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 294 | D +0.4 | D +0.9 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 2/25/20 |
86 | 86 | Montana State University Billings | 216 | 7 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.2 | B/C | D +0.3 | 57% | 0% | 3.6 | 6.3 | -2.5 | -4.1 | -0.5 | 7 | D +3.0 | D +2.5 | 0.0 | 10/18/08 | |
102 | 102 | Missouri State University | 212 | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.3 | B/C | D +0.3 | 67% | 0% | 4.4 | 7.5 | -2.9 | -3.1 | -0.2 | 3 | D +4.1 | D +1.2 | 4.1 | 0.26 | 10/24/10 |
141 | 141 | Frank N. Magid Associates Inc. | 105 | 4 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.4 | B/C | D +0.3 | 100% | 25% | 4.7 | 5.7 | -0.8 | -1.7 | -0.1 | 4 | D +4.7 | R +0.9 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 10/24/02 |
160 | 160 | Jim Meader (KELOLAND-TV) | 159 | 4 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.4 | B/C | D +0.3 | 100% | 25% | 4.6 | 5.5 | -0.7 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 4 | D +4.6 | D +4.4 | 0.0 | 10/21/02 | |
175 | 175 | Becker Institute | 26 | 3 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.4 | B/C | D +0.3 | 67% | 67% | 6.9 | 6.4 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 3 | D +6.9 | D +0.8 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 10/23/02 |
185 | 185 | Associated Industries of Florida | 18 | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.4 | B/C | D +0.3 | 50% | 0% | 3.4 | 4.5 | -0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2 | D +3.4 | D +1.0 | 0.0 | 10/19/16 | |
202 | 202 | Clarus Research Group | 53 | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.5 | B/C | D +0.3 | 100% | 33% | 6.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 3 | D +4.1 | D +2.2 | 0.0 | 10/6/11 | |
233 | 233 | Vox Populi Polling | 372 | 19 | no | no | IVR/Online | no | 0.5 | B/C | D +0.3 | 74% | 16% | 4.2 | 5.3 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -0.4 | 19 | D +0.7 | R +1.2 | 4.8 | 0.17 | 10/29/18 |
246 | 246 | Bannon Communications | 21 | 2 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.6 | B/C | D +0.3 | 100% | 50% | 10.4 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 2 | D +10.4 | D +8.3 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 10/16/04 |
254 | 254 | Baselice & Associates | 23 | 2 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.6 | B/C | D +0.3 | 100% | 50% | 10.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 2 | D +10.0 | D +8.5 | 4.0 | 0.23 | 9/25/03 |
255 | 255 | Florida Poll | 99 | 5 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.6 | B/C | D +0.3 | 60% | 0% | 4.6 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 5 | D +3.1 | D +0.8 | 3.3 | 0.71 | 10/25/10 |
258 | 258 | Lauer Johnson Research | 167 | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.6 | B/C | D +0.3 | 0% | 100% | 13.8 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 0.1 | 1 | D +13.8 | D +17.0 | 0.0 | 10/28/06 | |
279 | 279 | Rainmaker Media Group | 276 | 1 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.7 | B/C | D +0.3 | 100% | 100% | 12.1 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 10.3 | 0.2 | 1 | D +12.1 | D +7.8 | 0.0 | 10/15/08 | |
282 | 282 | Ohio University | 237 | 2 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.7 | B/C | D +0.3 | 50% | 50% | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 0.3 | 2 | D +8.8 | D +8.1 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 10/18/08 |
291 | 291 | St. Cloud State University | 312 | 9 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.7 | B/C | D +0.3 | 67% | 44% | 6.4 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 9 | D +2.0 | D +1.3 | 5.8 | 0.05 | 10/18/12 |
296 | 296 | Consumer Logic | 59 | 4 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.7 | B/C | D +0.3 | 50% | 75% | 8.8 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 4 | D +5.4 | D +2.5 | 3.1 | 1.17 | 10/17/04 |
311 | 311 | University of New Orleans | 358 | 12 | no | partial | IVR/Live | no | 0.8 | B/C | D +0.3 | 83% | 33% | 5.6 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 11 | D +1.0 | D +2.2 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 12/6/16 |
332 | 332 | Harper Polling/Clarity Campaign Labs | 513 | 1 | no | partial | IVR/Live | no | 1.0 | B/C | D +0.3 | 0% | 0% | 7.0 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 1 | D +7.0 | D +4.8 | 0.0 | 8/27/19 | |
336 | 336 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 193 | 10 | no | yes | Live | no | 1.0 | B/C | D +0.3 | 30% | 70% | 9.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 6 | D +1.7 | D +1.6 | 5.6 | 0.59 | 10/16/18 |
348 | 348 | Glengariff Group | 117 | 10 | no | partial | IVR/Live/Text | no | 1.0 | B/C | D +0.3 | 80% | 40% | 5.6 | 6.0 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 8 | D +1.3 | D +3.0 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 3/1/20 |
366 | 366 | USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times | 343 | 6 | yes | no | Online | no | 1.1 | B/C | D +0.3 | 67% | 83% | 5.3 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 6 | D +1.2 | D +1.2 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 10/31/18 |
374 | 374 | RABA Research | 269 | 2 | no | partial | IVR/Online/Live | no | 1.2 | B/C | D +0.3 | 100% | 50% | 5.3 | 6.0 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 1 | D +6.9 | D +2.0 | 2.3 | 0.57 | 11/2/16 |
16 | 16 | CBS News/The New York Times | 36 | 62 | yes | yes | Live | no | -0.7 | A | D +0.4 | 76% | 23% | 4.3 | 5.5 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.6 | 51 | D +0.7 | D +1.5 | 4.1 | 0.23 | 10/16/18 |
80 | 80 | University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) | 365 | 7 | yes | yes* | Live* | no | 0.1 | B/C | D +0.4 | 86% | 29% | 12.2 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 6 | D +4.1 | D +3.8 | 4.0 | 0.89 | 10/25/08 |
100 | 100 | YouGov | 391 | 416 | no | no | Online | no | 0.3 | B | D +0.4 | 88% | 30% | 4.9 | 5.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 357 | D +0.4 | D +0.2 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 3/7/20 |
109 | 109 | Franklin & Marshall College | 106 | 21 | yes | partial | Online/Live | no | 0.3 | B/C | D +0.4 | 86% | 29% | 6.4 | 6.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 18 | D +1.1 | D +2.1 | 5.7 | 0.03 | 10/25/18 |
221 | 221 | Ipsos | 154 | 66 | yes | no | Online | no | 0.5 | B- | D +0.4 | 70% | 21% | 4.6 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 60 | D +0.5 | D +1.0 | 3.7 | 0.06 | 11/5/18 |
228 | 228 | Minnesota State University Moorhead | 211 | 4 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.5 | B/C | D +0.4 | 100% | 50% | 8.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 4 | D +6.2 | D +3.3 | 0.0 | 10/19/04 | |
231 | 231 | Florida Atlantic University | 97 | 8 | no | no | IVR/Online | no | 0.5 | B/C | D +0.4 | 75% | 0% | 3.4 | 6.9 | -3.3 | -2.0 | -0.6 | 4 | D +2.9 | D +0.4 | 4.4 | 0.26 | 3/6/20 |
252 | 252 | Y2 Analytics | 389 | 4 | no | partial | Online/Live | no | 0.6 | B/C | D +0.4 | 100% | 50% | 9.7 | 5.8 | 4.0 | -1.5 | -0.2 | 3 | D +3.3 | R +6.7 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 11/2/16 |
266 | 266 | Data West Polling | 74 | 2 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.6 | B/C | D +0.4 | 50% | 100% | 13.1 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 0.2 | 2 | D +13.1 | D +7.5 | 0.0 | 10/26/02 | |
272 | 272 | Strategic Research Associates | 462 | 5 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.6 | B/C | D +0.4 | 80% | 20% | 5.0 | 5.4 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 5 | D +1.9 | D +0.0 | 3.2 | 0.36 | 10/20/18 |
287 | 287 | BK Strategies | 20 | 3 | no | partial | IVR/Live | no | 0.7 | B/C | D +0.4 | 67% | 33% | 3.8 | 3.7 | 0.3 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 3 | D +3.6 | R +2.9 | 3.3 | 0.27 | 10/28/16 |
289 | 289 | Hellenthal & Associates | 137 | 5 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.7 | B/C | D +0.4 | 40% | 40% | 8.3 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 3 | D +4.4 | D +1.2 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 10/18/14 |
290 | 290 | Hickman Analytics | 415 | 1 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.7 | B/C | D +0.4 | 0% | 100% | 9.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 0.3 | 1 | D +9.1 | D +7.7 | 0.0 | 10/15/19 | |
316 | 316 | Momentum Analysis | 214 | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.9 | B/C | D +0.4 | 33% | 100% | 13.7 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 0.5 | 3 | D +5.7 | D +2.8 | 0.0 | 10/13/10 | |
421 | 421 | Slingshot Strategies | 451 | 1 | no | no | IVR/Online | no | 1.5 | C/D | D +0.4 | 100% | 100% | 9.3 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 0.2 | 1 | D +9.3 | D +9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 11/1/18 |
435 | 435 | Saguaro Strategies | 298 | 2 | no | no | Online | no | 1.7 | C/D | D +0.4 | 0% | 100% | 5.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 0.4 | 2 | D +5.0 | D +4.0 | 2.4 | 0.89 | 10/30/16 |
3 | 3 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 3 | 73 | yes | yes | Live | no | -1.3 | A+ | D +0.5 | 72% | 7% | 2.8 | 4.8 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.2 | 68 | D +0.8 | D +1.3 | 3.8 | 0.12 | 10/31/18 |
17 | 17 | Grove Insight | 129 | 29 | no | yes | Live | no | -0.7 | A/B | D +0.5 | 90% | 7% | 3.0 | 5.8 | -2.6 | -3.0 | -1.4 | 29 | D +1.1 | D +3.4 | 3.8 | 0.67 | 11/2/12 |
48 | 48 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 258 | 35 | yes | yes | Live | no | -0.3 | A/B | D +0.5 | 63% | 31% | 5.1 | 5.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 33 | D +1.2 | D +0.2 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 10/25/14 |
58 | 58 | Elon University | 86 | 8 | yes | partial | Online/Live | no | -0.1 | A/B | D +0.5 | 56% | 13% | 3.2 | 4.6 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -0.2 | 8 | D +2.1 | D +0.8 | 3.6 | 0.57 | 10/25/16 |
108 | 108 | Dittman Research | 79 | 6 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.3 | B/C | D +0.5 | 100% | 33% | 5.4 | 5.9 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -0.1 | 5 | D +4.6 | R +1.0 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 10/26/10 |
208 | 208 | Kiley & Company | 162 | 3 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.5 | B/C | D +0.5 | 100% | 67% | 6.6 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 3 | D +5.5 | D +9.2 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 10/25/12 |
264 | 264 | Lycoming College | 176 | 3 | no | yes* | Live* | no | 0.6 | B/C | D +0.5 | 67% | 33% | 7.3 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 3 | D +7.3 | D +6.3 | 5.0 | 1.11 | 10/19/10 |
292 | 292 | RRH Elections | 274 | 9 | no | partial | IVR/Online/Live | no | 0.7 | B/C | D +0.5 | 83% | 22% | 4.2 | 5.6 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -0.3 | 9 | D +1.8 | R +4.1 | 3.9 | 0.83 | 8/27/19 |
312 | 312 | FM3 Research | 91 | 7 | no | partial | Online/Live | no | 0.9 | B/C | D +0.5 | 79% | 29% | 5.9 | 6.2 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 7 | D +5.5 | D +6.9 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 10/21/04 |
326 | 326 | Normington, Petts & Associates | 232 | 10 | no | partial | Online/Live | no | 0.9 | B/C | D +0.5 | 60% | 40% | 6.4 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 10 | D +2.7 | D +4.5 | 3.0 | 0.12 | 10/16/14 |
353 | 353 | Roanoke College | 292 | 16 | yes | yes | Live | no | 1.1 | B/C | D +0.5 | 78% | 56% | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 13 | D +1.8 | D +1.9 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 10/31/17 |
429 | 429 | University of Colorado | 580 | 2 | no | no | Online | no | 1.6 | C/D | D +0.5 | 100% | 50% | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 2 | D +6.7 | D +7.3 | 0.0 | 10/21/16 | |
20 | 20 | Suffolk University | 323 | 88 | yes | yes | Live | no | -0.6 | A | D +0.6 | 79% | 24% | 5.1 | 6.7 | -1.4 | -0.6 | -0.5 | 52 | D +1.0 | D +1.8 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 2/28/20 |
35 | 35 | NBC News/The Wall Street Journal | 221 | 31 | yes | yes | Live | no | -0.4 | A- | D +0.6 | 73% | 10% | 4.0 | 5.2 | -1.0 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 26 | D +1.2 | D +0.7 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 11/2/18 |
62 | 62 | Middle Tennessee State University | 208 | 5 | yes | yes | Live | no | -0.1 | A/B | D +0.6 | 100% | 60% | 9.3 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 4 | D +4.6 | R +5.0 | 4.5 | 0.21 | 10/24/14 |
74 | 74 | Harstad Strategic Research Inc. | 134 | 10 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.0 | B/C | D +0.6 | 75% | 10% | 3.8 | 5.9 | -1.9 | -1.6 | -0.3 | 10 | D +2.6 | D +3.3 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 10/21/14 |
110 | 110 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 302 | 12 | no | yes | Live | no | 0.3 | B/C | D +0.6 | 83% | 0% | 3.0 | 5.4 | -2.2 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 10 | D +2.2 | D +0.2 | 3.5 | 0.53 | 10/19/18 |
124 | 124 | Lake Research Partners | 165 | 10 | no | partial | IVR/Online/Live | no | 0.3 | B/C | D +0.6 | 80% | 20% | 3.9 | 6.1 | -1.9 | -2.2 | -0.5 | 10 | D +2.4 | D +3.4 | 5.8 | 0.06 | 4/15/18 |
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CREATE TABLE "pollster-ratings/2020/pollster-ratings" ( "Pollster" TEXT, "Pollster Rating ID" INTEGER, "# of Polls" INTEGER, "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper" TEXT, "Live Caller With Cellphones" TEXT, "Methodology" TEXT, "Banned by 538" TEXT, "Predictive Plus-Minus" REAL, "538 Grade" TEXT, "Mean-Reverted Bias" TEXT, "Races Called Correctly" TEXT, "Misses Outside MOE" TEXT, "Simple Average Error" REAL, "Simple Expected Error" REAL, "Simple Plus-Minus" REAL, "Advanced Plus-Minus" REAL, "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus" REAL, "# of Polls for Bias Analysis" INTEGER, "Bias" TEXT, "House Effect" TEXT, "Average Distance from Polling Average (ADPA)" REAL, "Herding Penalty" REAL, "latest_poll" TEXT );