NCAA Bracket: historical-538-ncaa-tournament-model-results.csv

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This table contains data behind the story The NCAA Bracket: Checking Our Work.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

253 rows

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Suggested facets: year, round, favorite_win_flag

Link rowid ▼ year round favorite underdog favorite_probability favorite_win_flag
1 1 2014 2 Texas Arizona State 0.501 1
2 2 2013 2 Illinois Colorado 0.504 1
3 3 2013 1 James Madison Long Island 0.506 1
4 4 2011 2 Cincinnati Missouri 0.509 1
5 5 2012 3 Cincinnati Florida State 0.509 1
6 6 2011 5 Arizona Connecticut 0.514 0
7 7 2013 1 La Salle Boise State 0.515 1
8 8 2014 1 Tennessee Iowa 0.517 1
9 9 2011 2 Xavier Marquette 0.518 0
10 10 2013 6 Michigan Syracuse 0.519 1
11 11 2014 2 Oklahoma State Gonzaga 0.52 0
12 12 2012 2 Xavier Notre Dame 0.521 1
13 13 2014 1 Albany Mount St. Mary's 0.523 1
14 14 2012 1 Iona Brigham Young 0.525 0
15 15 2012 4 Florida Marquette 0.525 1
16 16 2011 5 North Carolina Kentucky 0.525 0
17 17 2012 5 North Carolina Kansas 0.525 0
18 18 2011 1 USC Virginia Commonwealth 0.526 0
19 19 2012 2 Alabama Creighton 0.526 0
20 20 2013 1 North Carolina A&T Liberty 0.527 1
21 21 2012 1 Lamar Vermont 0.527 0
22 22 2011 2 Florida State Texas A&M 0.531 1
23 23 2013 3 Marquette Butler 0.534 1
24 24 2011 6 Butler Virginia Commonwealth 0.534 1
25 25 2012 3 New Mexico Louisville 0.537 0
26 26 2012 4 Syracuse Wisconsin 0.537 1
27 27 2011 6 Kentucky Connecticut 0.538 0
28 28 2013 4 Duke Michigan State 0.543 1
29 29 2014 3 Creighton Baylor 0.544 0
30 30 2013 4 Kansas Michigan 0.548 0
31 31 2011 2 West Virginia Clemson 0.55 1
32 32 2014 2 Memphis George Washington 0.55 1
33 33 2012 5 Florida Louisville 0.552 0
34 34 2011 2 Temple Penn State 0.553 1
35 35 2012 2 Georgetown Belmont 0.553 1
36 36 2014 1 Cal Poly Texas Southern 0.556 1
37 37 2014 3 Iowa State North Carolina 0.557 1
38 38 2013 4 Ohio State Arizona 0.558 1
39 39 2013 1 Saint Mary's Middle Tennessee 0.559 0
40 40 2011 3 Brigham Young Gonzaga 0.559 1
41 41 2013 2 San Diego State Oklahoma 0.561 1
42 42 2011 2 Butler Old Dominion 0.562 1
43 43 2011 2 Washington Georgia 0.562 1
44 44 2011 3 Wisconsin Kansas State 0.563 1
45 45 2012 3 South Florida Ohio 0.567 0
46 46 2011 2 Tennessee Michigan 0.569 0
47 47 2011 2 Kansas State Utah State 0.571 1
48 48 2013 4 Indiana Syracuse 0.571 0
49 49 2012 1 California South Florida 0.577 0
50 50 2012 2 Connecticut Iowa State 0.578 0
51 51 2014 3 Wichita State Kentucky 0.579 0
52 52 2014 2 Cincinnati Harvard 0.58 0
53 53 2014 2 Saint Louis North Carolina State 0.58 1
54 54 2012 2 West Virginia Gonzaga 0.582 0
55 55 2013 2 Creighton Cincinnati 0.585 1
56 56 2013 3 Michigan Virginia Commonwealth 0.586 1
57 57 2011 2 Vanderbilt Richmond 0.586 0
58 58 2011 2 Illinois UNLV 0.586 1
59 59 2013 2 Memphis Saint Mary's 0.588 1
60 60 2011 4 Florida Brigham Young 0.596 1
61 61 2012 2 North Carolina State San Diego State 0.598 1
62 62 2013 4 Miami (FL) Marquette 0.598 0
63 63 2012 3 Wisconsin Vanderbilt 0.599 1
64 64 2013 2 Notre Dame Iowa State 0.6 0
65 65 2011 1 UTSA Alabama State 0.602 1
66 66 2012 6 Ohio State Kansas 0.603 0
67 67 2012 2 Cincinnati Texas 0.604 1
68 68 2013 2 Oklahoma State Oregon 0.605 0
69 69 2011 1 Clemson UAB 0.605 1
70 70 2011 3 Kentucky West Virginia 0.606 1
71 71 2011 2 Villanova George Mason 0.607 0
72 72 2012 4 Michigan State Louisville 0.607 1
73 73 2012 2 Purdue St. Mary's 0.61 1
74 74 2012 2 Temple South Florida 0.614 0
75 75 2011 4 Florida State Virginia Commonwealth 0.619 0
76 76 2013 2 Minnesota UCLA 0.619 1
77 77 2013 2 Pittsburgh Wichita State 0.621 0
78 78 2012 1 Western Kentucky Mississippi Valley State 0.622 1
79 79 2013 3 Saint Louis Oregon 0.626 0
80 80 2013 3 Mississippi La Salle 0.627 0
81 81 2013 2 Butler Bucknell 0.627 1
82 82 2011 1 North Carolina Asheville Arkansas-Little Rock 0.627 1
83 83 2011 7 Connecticut Butler 0.628 1
84 84 2013 7 Louisville Michigan 0.629 1
85 85 2013 2 Missouri Colorado State 0.634 0
86 86 2012 3 Georgetown North Carolina State 0.636 0
87 87 2013 5 Florida Michigan 0.637 0
88 88 2014 1 Xavier North Carolina State 0.637 0
89 89 2014 2 New Mexico Stanford 0.638 0
90 90 2014 2 Oklahoma North Dakota State 0.638 0
91 91 2011 3 Connecticut Cincinnati 0.638 1
92 92 2012 7 Kentucky Kansas 0.641 1
93 93 2012 2 Florida Virgina 0.641 1
94 94 2012 5 Ohio State Syracuse 0.642 1
95 95 2014 3 San Diego State North Dakota State 0.646 1
96 96 2012 3 Xavier Lehigh 0.647 1
97 97 2014 2 Oregon Brigham Young 0.647 1
98 98 2014 3 Villanova Connecticut 0.649 0
99 99 2013 2 Marquette Davidson 0.655 1
100 100 2011 4 Wisconsin Butler 0.657 0

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CREATE TABLE "historical-ncaa-forecasts/historical-538-ncaa-tournament-model-results" (
"year" INTEGER,
  "round" INTEGER,
  "favorite" TEXT,
  "underdog" TEXT,
  "favorite_probability" REAL,
  "favorite_win_flag" INTEGER
);