pollster-ratings/2018/pollster-ratings

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

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Suggested facets: NCPP / AAPOR / Roper, Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones, Methodology, Banned by 538, 538 Grade, Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus

Link rowid Pollster # of Polls NCPP / AAPOR / Roper Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones Methodology Banned by 538 Historical Advanced Plus-Minus Predictive Plus-Minus 538 Grade Mean-Reverted Bias Races Called Correctly Misses Outside MOE Simple Average Error Simple Expected Error Simple Plus-Minus Advanced Plus-Minus Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus Predictive Plus-Minus # of Polls for Bias Analysis Bias Mean-Reverted Bias.1 House Effect
1 Selzer & Co. 43 yes yes Live no -1.9 -1.4 A+ R +0.0 86% 21% 4.2 5.6 -1.4 -1.9 -1.1 -1.4 30 R +0.0 R +0.0 D +0.1
2 Monmouth University 95 yes yes Live no -1.5 -1.3 A+ D +1.4 80% 17% 5.3 6.2 -0.8 -1.5 -1.1 -1.3 65 D +2.1 D +1.4 R +0.7
3 Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) 25 yes yes Live no -2.5 -1.1 A+ R +1.2 100% 16% 3.9 5.7 -1.8 -2.5 -1.1 -1.1 18 R +3.3 R +1.2 D +0.6
4 ABC News/Washington Post 60 yes yes Live no -1.3 -1.1 A+ D +0.6 78% 5% 2.9 4.6 -1.8 -1.3 -0.9 -1.1 55 D +0.9 D +0.6 D +1.5
5 Elway Research 21 yes yes Live no -2.2 -1.1 A+ D +0.5 90% 5% 3.9 5.9 -1.9 -2.2 -0.9 -1.1 20 D +1.2 D +0.5 D +3.2
6 Ciruli Associates 17 yes yes Live no -2.1 -1.0 A+ R +0.7 94% 0% 3.6 5.6 -2.0 -2.1 -0.7 -1.0 16 R +2.1 R +0.7 R +2.5
7 SurveyUSA 777 yes no IVR/Online/Live no -1.1 -0.9 A D +0.1 90% 16% 4.6 5.6 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 615 D +0.1 D +0.1 R +0.3
8 Muhlenberg College 26 yes yes Live no -1.3 -0.9 A R +0.2 83% 8% 3.5 5.3 -1.9 -1.3 -0.6 -0.9 25 R +0.5 R +0.2 D +0.0
9 Marist College 159 yes yes Live no -0.9 -0.9 A R +0.5 85% 19% 5.2 6.0 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.9 99 R +0.6 R +0.5 D +0.0
10 Grove Insight 29 no yes Live no -2.3 -0.8 A D +0.5 90% 7% 3.1 5.1 -2.0 -2.3 -1.1 -0.8 29 D +1.0 D +0.5 D +3.4
11 National Journal 12 yes yes Live no -2.4 -0.8 A R +0.2 100% 0% 2.6 5.3 -2.7 -2.4 -0.7 -0.8 12 R +0.6 R +0.2 D +0.3
12 Public Policy Institute of California 12 yes yes Live no -2.0 -0.8 A R +0.7 100% 8% 4.1 6.2 -2.1 -2.0 -0.6 -0.8 8 R +3.4 R +0.7 R +1.0
13 University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) 38 yes yes Live no -1.0 -0.8 A R +1.5 93% 16% 3.7 5.5 -1.8 -1.0 -0.6 -0.8 29 R +3.0 R +1.5 R +2.3
14 Siena College 60 yes yes Live no -0.9 -0.8 A D +0.1 82% 15% 4.9 5.3 -0.3 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 56 D +0.1 D +0.1 R +0.7
15 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) 18 yes yes Live no -1.4 -0.7 A D +0.0 94% 6% 4.1 5.4 -1.3 -1.4 -0.5 -0.7 17 D +0.1 D +0.0 D +3.1
16 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Co. Research 31 yes yes Live no -0.9 -0.7 A D +0.6 69% 35% 5.6 6.0 -0.4 -0.9 -0.5 -0.7 16 D +1.8 D +0.6 D +0.9
17 Marquette University Law School 9 yes yes Live no -2.5 -0.7 A D +0.3 78% 11% 3.3 5.8 -2.5 -2.5 -0.6 -0.7 6 D +1.5 D +0.3 R +0.0
18 Research & Polling Inc. 27 no yes Live no -1.7 -0.6 A R +0.5 85% 7% 4.3 5.6 -1.3 -1.7 -0.8 -0.6 26 R +1.1 R +0.5 R +1.2
19 Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain) 7 yes yes Live no -2.6 -0.6 A- D +0.1 71% 0% 3.5 6.5 -3.0 -2.6 -0.5 -0.6 5 D +0.6 D +0.1 R +2.1
20 Blum & Weprin Associates 18 no yes Live no -2.6 -0.6 A- R +1.0 94% 11% 4.6 5.2 -0.6 -2.6 -1.0 -0.6 16 R +3.0 R +1.0 D +1.2
21 CBS News/New York Times 53 yes yes Live no -0.5 -0.5 A- D +0.4 76% 17% 4.6 5.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 43 D +0.7 D +0.4 D +1.8
22 University of Arkansas 6 yes yes Live no -3.1 -0.5 A- D +0.6 100% 0% 3.8 5.3 -1.6 -3.1 -0.5 -0.5 6 D +3.8 D +0.6 R +3.9
23 University of Connecticut 7 yes yes Live no -1.7 -0.5 A- R +0.4 93% 0% 3.6 5.5 -1.9 -1.7 -0.3 -0.5 7 R +1.9 R +0.4 R +2.0
24 Los Angeles Times 38 yes yes Live no -0.4 -0.5 A- R +0.4 86% 16% 5.0 6.2 -1.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 23 R +1.0 R +0.4 D +0.7
25 IBD/TIPP 21 no yes Live no -1.5 -0.5 A- R +0.8 71% 5% 2.2 3.7 -1.5 -1.5 -0.6 -0.5 21 R +1.9 R +0.8 R +1.4
26 RKM Research and Communications Inc. 28 no yes Live no -1.3 -0.4 A- R +0.2 88% 18% 5.3 6.2 -0.9 -1.3 -0.6 -0.4 20 R +0.5 R +0.2 R +1.5
27 MassINC Polling Group 14 no yes Live no -2.4 -0.4 A- R +0.4 86% 7% 3.2 6.3 -3.1 -2.4 -0.8 -0.4 10 R +1.7 R +0.4 R +0.9
28 Elon University 7 yes yes Live no -1.2 -0.4 A- D +0.5 50% 0% 3.2 4.7 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 -0.4 7 D +2.7 D +0.5 D +1.1
29 Quinnipiac University 195 yes yes Live no -0.3 -0.4 A- D +0.1 85% 23% 4.6 5.5 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 143 D +0.1 D +0.1 D +0.5
30 SSRS 5 yes yes Live no -1.5 -0.4 A- R +0.1 20% 20% 3.1 4.1 -1.0 -1.5 -0.2 -0.4 5 R +0.5 R +0.1 D +1.0
31 Angus Reid Global 30 no no Online no -1.9 -0.4 A- R +1.3 93% 3% 3.2 4.9 -1.7 -1.9 -0.9 -0.4 30 R +2.6 R +1.3 D +0.9
32 University of North Florida 6 yes yes Live no -1.0 -0.4 A- D +0.5 50% 0% 4.0 6.1 -2.1 -1.0 -0.2 -0.4 4 D +4.0 D +0.5 D +1.6
33 Western New England University 12 yes yes Live no -0.4 -0.3 A- R +1.1 88% 25% 5.6 5.7 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 11 R +3.9 R +1.1 R +0.3
34 NBC News/Wall Street Journal 27 yes yes Live no -0.2 -0.3 A- D +0.8 72% 15% 4.2 5.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 22 D +1.9 D +0.8 D +1.4
35 St. Norbert College 12 no yes Live no -1.8 -0.3 A- D +0.3 88% 0% 3.9 6.1 -2.3 -1.8 -0.5 -0.3 11 D +0.9 D +0.3 D +2.9
36 Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. 420 no yes Live no -0.5 -0.3 B+ R +0.7 86% 20% 5.2 5.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 363 R +0.8 R +0.7 R +1.0
37 Lake Research Partners 10 no yes Live no -2.0 -0.3 B+ D +0.6 80% 10% 3.9 5.7 -1.7 -2.0 -0.5 -0.3 10 D +2.4 D +0.6 D +3.3
38 Abt Associates 8 yes yes Live no -0.4 -0.3 B+ D +0.7 88% 13% 4.1 5.2 -1.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 7 D +3.8 D +0.7 D +0.7
39 Castleton University 3 yes yes Live no -1.2 -0.3 B+   100% 0% 9.9 9.7 0.3 -1.2 -0.1 -0.3 0      
40 Emerson College 85 yes no IVR no -0.6 -0.3 B+ D +0.1 75% 16% 5.6 6.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 58 D +0.2 D +0.1 R +1.8
41 EPIC-MRA 45 no yes Live no -0.7 -0.3 B+ R +0.2 80% 18% 5.1 5.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 40 R +0.3 R +0.2 D +0.8
42 High Point University 2 yes yes Live no -4.6 -0.3 B+ D +0.0 100% 0% 1.0 4.5 -3.5 -4.6 -0.3 -0.3 2 D +0.1 D +0.0 D +1.8
43 Indiana University 2 yes yes Live no -4.4 -0.3 B+ D +0.1 100% 0% 0.9 5.8 -4.9 -4.4 -0.3 -0.3 2 D +0.9 D +0.1 D +4.1
44 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 98 yes yes Live no -0.1 -0.2 B+ D +0.1 72% 23% 5.4 5.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 70 D +0.1 D +0.1 D +0.1
45 Fleming & Associates 15 no yes Live no -1.3 -0.2 B+ R +0.3 100% 0% 5.1 5.9 -0.8 -1.3 -0.4 -0.2 13 R +1.0 R +0.3 R +0.2
46 Princeton Survey Research Associates International 33 yes yes Live no 0.0 -0.2 B+ D +0.3 70% 27% 4.8 5.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 31 D +0.5 D +0.3 R +0.2
47 Market Shares Corp. 26 yes yes Live no 0.1 -0.2 B+ R +1.7 85% 19% 6.8 5.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 22 R +4.1 R +1.7 R +2.0
48 Ward Research (Honolulu Star-Advertiser) 14 no yes Live no -1.3 -0.2 B+ R +0.6 75% 29% 6.0 5.9 0.1 -1.3 -0.4 -0.2 14 R +1.7 R +0.6 D +0.7
49 University of Massachusetts Lowell 17 no yes Live no -1.1 -0.2 B+ R +0.2 88% 12% 4.5 6.4 -1.9 -1.1 -0.4 -0.2 9 R +0.8 R +0.2 R +0.7
50 University of South Alabama 8 no yes Live no -3.1 -0.2 B+ R +0.4 100% 0% 2.8 5.2 -2.4 -3.1 -0.7 -0.2 8 R +1.9 R +0.4 R +2.2
51 Winthrop University 1 yes yes Live no -3.9 -0.2 B+ D +0.0 100% 0% 0.2 4.2 -4.0 -3.9 -0.1 -0.2 1 D +0.2 D +0.0 R +0.9
52 University of Florida 1 yes yes Live no -2.0 -0.2 B+ D +0.0 50% 0% 1.1 4.9 -3.8 -2.0 -0.1 -0.2 1 D +1.1 D +0.0 R +0.9
53 National Research Inc. 8 no yes Live no -1.9 -0.2 B+ R +0.5 81% 13% 5.1 6.4 -1.4 -1.9 -0.4 -0.2 6 R +2.7 R +0.5 R +4.6
54 Stockton University 8 no yes Live no -1.9 -0.2 B+ D +0.3 100% 13% 3.6 5.2 -1.6 -1.9 -0.4 -0.2 8 D +1.5 D +0.3 D +0.2
55 Suffolk University 74 no yes Live no -0.4 -0.1 B+ D +0.6 81% 19% 5.0 6.4 -1.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 44 D +1.0 D +0.6 D +2.0
56 Market Research Insight 7 no yes Live no -4.6 -0.1 B+ D +0.1 100% 0% 1.8 5.0 -3.2 -4.6 -0.9 -0.1 7 D +0.3 D +0.1 D +2.0
57 Montana State University Billings 7 no yes Live no -3.8 -0.1 B+ D +0.6 57% 0% 3.6 5.9 -2.3 -3.8 -0.7 -0.1 7 D +3.0 D +0.6 D +2.6
58 Data Orbital 7 no yes Live no -2.6 -0.1 B+ D +0.1 100% 0% 1.8 4.6 -2.8 -2.6 -0.5 -0.1 7 D +0.4 D +0.1 R +2.6
59 Riley Research Associates 7 no yes Live no -2.4 -0.1 B+ R +0.1 100% 0% 2.7 5.6 -2.9 -2.4 -0.5 -0.1 7 R +0.6 R +0.1 R +1.4
60 RT Strategies 42 yes yes Live no 0.2 -0.1 B+ D +1.1 71% 40% 5.8 5.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.1 42 D +1.9 D +1.1 D +3.5
61 University of Washington 9 no yes Live no -1.4 -0.1 B+ D +0.1 100% 0% 3.7 5.1 -1.4 -1.4 -0.3 -0.1 9 D +0.3 D +0.1 D +3.4
62 Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. 14 no yes Live no -0.9 -0.1 B+ R +0.1 86% 7% 4.1 5.4 -1.3 -0.9 -0.3 -0.1 12 R +0.3 R +0.1 D +0.3
63 Ipsos 56 yes no Online no -0.3 -0.1 B+ D +0.6 75% 18% 4.4 4.8 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 50 D +1.0 D +0.6 D +1.3
64 Harstad Strategic Research Inc. 9 no yes Live no -1.3 -0.1 B+ D +0.8 72% 11% 3.8 5.8 -2.0 -1.3 -0.3 -0.1 9 D +3.4 D +0.8 D +3.1
65 Pan Atlantic SMS Group 17 no yes Live no -0.7 -0.1 B+ D +0.9 91% 24% 6.8 6.4 0.4 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1 15 D +2.8 D +0.9 D +1.5
66 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 23 no yes Live no -0.5 -0.1 B+ D +1.5 85% 35% 5.7 5.7 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 23 D +3.5 D +1.5 D +4.6
67 American Viewpoint 6 no yes Live no -1.8 0.0 B+ R +0.6 67% 0% 4.0 5.6 -1.7 -1.8 -0.3 0.0 6 R +3.8 R +0.6 R +3.2
68 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint 7 no yes Live no -1.5 0.0 B+ R +0.7 100% 57% 4.8 5.3 -0.4 -1.5 -0.3 0.0 5 R +4.9 R +0.7 D +1.8
69 Christopher Newport University 7 no yes Live no -1.5 0.0 B+ D +0.5 100% 14% 3.9 4.7 -0.8 -1.5 -0.3 0.0 7 D +2.6 D +0.5 D +1.2
70 Pharos Research Group 31 no yes Live yes -0.3 0.0 F D +0.9 92% 16% 4.0 4.9 -0.9 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 31 D +1.7 D +0.9 D +0.9
71 Temple University 6 yes no Live* no -1.5 0.0 B R +0.4 100% 17% 3.7 5.2 -1.6 -1.5 -0.3 0.0 5 R +2.5 R +0.4 D +0.8
72 Keating Research Inc. 5 no yes Live no -1.8 0.0 B D +0.1 80% 0% 2.4 4.5 -2.1 -1.8 -0.3 0.0 5 D +0.9 D +0.1 D +3.0
73 Clemson University 5 no yes Live no -1.8 0.0 B R +0.5 100% 40% 10.3 7.7 2.6 -1.8 -0.3 0.0 1 R +16.7 R +0.5 R +9.7
74 Public Policy Polling 411 no no IVR/Online no -0.4 0.0 B D +0.3 80% 28% 4.9 5.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 292 D +0.3 D +0.3 D +1.0
75 Orion Strategies 4 no yes Live no -3.8 0.0 B D +0.1 100% 0% 3.1 6.2 -3.2 -3.8 -0.4 0.0 3 D +1.3 D +0.1 D +6.3
76 Strategies 360 4 no yes Live no -3.0 0.0 B R +0.1 63% 0% 2.0 5.3 -3.3 -3.0 -0.3 0.0 4 R +0.6 R +0.1 D +1.0
77 Landmark Communications 38 no no IVR/Online no -0.9 0.1 B D +1.4 82% 18% 4.7 5.4 -0.7 -0.9 -0.5 0.1 32 D +2.7 D +1.4 R +0.5
78 YouGov 375 no no Online no -0.4 0.1 B D +0.3 88% 25% 5.0 5.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 327 D +0.3 D +0.3 D +0.3
79 Public Opinion Strategies 57 no yes Live no -0.1 0.1 B R +1.5 68% 23% 6.0 5.8 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 55 R +2.3 R +1.5 R +4.3
80 Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer) 4 no yes Live no -1.6 0.1 B R +0.3 100% 0% 3.0 5.0 -2.0 -1.6 -0.2 0.1 4 R +2.7 R +0.3 D +0.1
81 Strategic Vision LLC 129 no no Live* yes -0.4 0.1 F R +1.9 88% 16% 4.0 5.0 -1.0 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 106 R +2.4 R +1.9 R +2.3
82 Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates 4 no yes Live no -1.5 0.1 B D +0.3 75% 25% 6.3 6.2 0.2 -1.5 -0.2 0.1 3 D +3.4 D +0.3 R +2.3
83 Tarrance Group 24 no yes Live no -0.2 0.1 B R +0.7 83% 21% 6.2 6.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 20 R +1.7 R +0.7 R +5.4
84 Iowa State University 3 no yes Live no -3.5 0.1 B   67% 33% 6.3 8.9 -2.6 -3.5 -0.3 0.1 0      
85 Missouri State University 3 no yes Live no -2.6 0.1 B D +0.4 67% 0% 4.4 6.7 -2.3 -2.6 -0.2 0.1 3 D +4.1 D +0.4 D +1.2
86 Voter/Consumer Research 6 no yes Live no -0.9 0.1 B D +0.1 100% 50% 5.5 5.7 -0.2 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 6 D +0.3 D +0.1 R +3.0
87 GBA Strategies 3 no yes Live no -1.9 0.1 B R +0.0 67% 0% 4.7 6.1 -1.4 -1.9 -0.2 0.1 3 R +0.2 R +0.0 D +4.0
88 Mellman Group 21 no yes Live no -0.1 0.1 B D +1.6 79% 14% 4.9 5.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 21 D +4.0 D +1.6 D +5.4
89 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corp. 34 yes no Live* no -0.1 0.1 B R +0.5 72% 9% 3.9 4.9 -1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 28 R +1.0 R +0.5 R +1.6
90 GfK Group 21 yes no Online no -0.1 0.1 B D +0.3 88% 19% 3.9 4.8 -0.9 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 21 D +0.6 D +0.3 D +1.2
91 Market Decisions 4 no yes Live no -1.2 0.1 B R +0.1 100% 25% 5.2 5.1 0.0 -1.2 -0.1 0.1 4 R +0.5 R +0.1 D +0.4
92 Richmond Times-Dispatch 4 no yes Live no -1.1 0.1 B D +0.3 100% 0% 3.3 4.6 -1.3 -1.1 -0.1 0.1 4 D +2.9 D +0.3 D +2.4
93 Y2 Analytics 4 no yes Live no -1.0 0.1 B D +0.3 100% 50% 9.6 5.7 3.9 -1.0 -0.1 0.1 3 D +3.3 D +0.3 R +6.5
94 New England College 15 no no IVR no -1.4 0.2 B R +0.6 77% 0% 3.0 4.9 -1.9 -1.4 -0.5 0.2 15 R +1.9 R +0.6 R +3.5
95 McKeon & Associates 2 no yes Live no -6.5 0.2 B R +0.0 100% 0% 0.9 6.5 -5.5 -6.5 -0.4 0.2 1 R +0.9 R +0.0 R +2.0
96 RBI Strategies & Research 2 no yes Live no -6.4 0.2 B R +0.0 100% 0% 0.7 5.4 -4.6 -6.4 -0.4 0.2 1 R +0.7 R +0.0 D +3.5
97 Frederick Polls 2 no yes Live no -5.0 0.2 B R +0.0 75% 0% 2.4 6.4 -4.0 -5.0 -0.3 0.2 1 R +0.6 R +0.0 D +3.0
98 APC Research 2 no yes Live no -3.4 0.2 B D +0.2 100% 0% 2.5 5.4 -2.8 -3.4 -0.2 0.2 2 D +2.5 D +0.2 R +0.6
99 Tulchin Research 2 no yes Live no -3.0 0.2 B R +0.2 100% 0% 3.5 4.9 -1.5 -3.0 -0.2 0.2 2 R +3.5 R +0.2 D +3.2
100 Harper Polling 11 no no IVR no -1.8 0.2 B D +0.1 91% 9% 3.6 5.8 -2.3 -1.8 -0.5 0.2 8 D +0.5 D +0.1 R +1.1

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CREATE TABLE "pollster-ratings/2018/pollster-ratings" (
"Pollster" TEXT,
  "# of Polls" INTEGER,
  "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper" TEXT,
  "Exclusively Live Caller With Cellphones" TEXT,
  "Methodology" TEXT,
  "Banned by 538" TEXT,
  "Historical Advanced Plus-Minus" REAL,
  "Predictive    Plus-Minus" REAL,
  "538 Grade" TEXT,
  "Mean-Reverted Bias" TEXT,
  "Races Called Correctly" TEXT,
  "Misses Outside MOE" TEXT,
  "Simple Average Error" REAL,
  "Simple Expected Error" REAL,
  "Simple Plus-Minus" REAL,
  "Advanced Plus-Minus" REAL,
  "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus" REAL,
  "Predictive Plus-Minus" REAL,
  "# of Polls for Bias Analysis" INTEGER,
  "Bias" TEXT,
  "Mean-Reverted Bias.1" TEXT,
  "House Effect" TEXT
);
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