pollster-ratings/pollster-ratings

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Suggested facets: NCPP / AAPOR / Roper, Live Caller With Cellphones, Methodology, Banned by 538, 538 Grade

Link rowid ▼ Pollster Pollster Rating ID # of Polls NCPP / AAPOR / Roper Live Caller With Cellphones Methodology Banned by 538 Predictive Plus-Minus 538 Grade Mean-Reverted Bias Races Called Correctly Misses Outside MOE Simple Average Error Simple Expected Error Simple Plus-Minus Advanced Plus-Minus Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus # of Polls for Bias Analysis Bias House Effect Average Distance from Polling Average (ADPA) Herding Penalty latest_poll
1 Monmouth University 215 108 yes yes Live no -1.6 A+ D +1.3 81% 21% 5.4 6.7 -1.2 -2.0 -1.6 71 D +1.8 R +0.4 5.2 0.2 3/13/20
2 Selzer & Co. 304 48 yes yes Live no -1.3 A+ D +0.1 79% 25% 4.6 6.1 -1.3 -1.8 -1.1 31 D +0.2 D +0.2 5.2 0.0 11/1/18
3 ABC News/The Washington Post 3 73 yes yes Live no -1.3 A+ D +0.5 72% 7% 2.8 4.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.2 68 D +0.8 D +1.3 3.8 0.12 10/31/18
4 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot 448 59 yes yes Live no -1.1 A+ R +0.3 69% 10% 3.9 5.7 -1.6 -1.5 -1.1 58 R +0.4 D +0.4 4.4 0.19 1/22/20
5 Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) 94 25 yes yes Live no -1.1 A/B R +0.7 100% 16% 3.9 5.6 -1.5 -2.0 -0.7 18 R +2.5 D +0.6 4.7 0.01 5/29/16
6 Marquette University Law School 195 12 yes yes Live no -1.0 A/B D +0.2 79% 8% 2.8 5.9 -2.9 -2.8 -0.9 8 D +1.0 R +0.3 4.9 0.0 3/27/20
7 Muhlenberg College 219 29 yes yes Live no -1.0 A+ R +0.2 84% 7% 3.4 6.0 -2.4 -2.3 -1.1 28 R +0.3 D +0.2 3.9 0.97 10/30/18
8 Marist College 183 183 yes yes Live no -1.0 A+ R +0.3 84% 25% 5.4 6.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9 113 R +0.4 R +0.2 5.2 0.0 3/13/20
9 Data Orbital 73 9 yes yes Live no -0.9 A/B D +0.3 94% 0% 2.3 5.3 -2.8 -2.4 -0.7 9 D +1.2 R +1.1 3.7 0.65 10/17/18
10 National Journal 224 12 yes yes Live no -0.8 A/B R +0.1 100% 0% 2.6 6.1 -3.4 -3.2 -0.7 12 R +0.6 D +0.3 3.5 0.89 10/25/08
11 Stockton University 317 10 yes yes Live no -0.8 A/B D +0.7 100% 20% 4.0 5.3 -1.1 -1.4 -0.4 10 D +2.3 D +0.7 6.1 0.0 10/28/18
12 SurveyUSA 325 787 yes partial IVR/Online/Live no -0.8 A D +0.1 89% 20% 4.7 5.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 627 D +0.1 R +0.4 5.0 0.12 3/5/20
13 Ciruli Associates 51 16 yes yes Live no -0.8 A/B R +0.4 94% 0% 3.5 5.9 -2.3 -2.5 -0.5 16 R +2.1 R +2.7 5.3 0.59 10/25/06
14 MassINC Polling Group 198 18 yes partial Online/Live no -0.7 A/B R +0.7 83% 22% 4.9 6.7 -1.7 -1.6 -0.7 12 R +2.4 R +1.4 6.4 0.0 2/25/20
15 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) 92 19 yes yes Live no -0.7 A/B D +0.0 95% 5% 3.9 5.4 -1.3 -1.4 -0.4 18 D +0.1 D +2.8 4.5 0.3 10/16/14
16 CBS News/The New York Times 36 62 yes yes Live no -0.7 A D +0.4 76% 23% 4.3 5.5 -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 51 D +0.7 D +1.5 4.1 0.23 10/16/18
17 Grove Insight 129 29 no yes Live no -0.7 A/B D +0.5 90% 7% 3.0 5.8 -2.6 -3.0 -1.4 29 D +1.1 D +3.4 3.8 0.67 11/2/12
18 Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) 27 8 yes yes Live no -0.7 A/B D +0.1 75% 0% 3.1 6.4 -3.1 -2.7 -0.3 6 D +1.0 R +1.4 8.1 0.0 10/22/08
19 Western New England University 380 10 yes yes Live no -0.6 A/B R +0.3 100% 10% 4.3 6.4 -1.9 -2.5 -0.7 9 R +1.1 D +2.2 2.6 1.46 10/19/18
20 Suffolk University 323 88 yes yes Live no -0.6 A D +0.6 79% 24% 5.1 6.7 -1.4 -0.6 -0.5 52 D +1.0 D +1.8 5.7 0.0 2/28/20
21 IBD/TIPP 144 27 yes partial Online/Live no -0.6 A/B R +0.8 78% 4% 2.2 4.1 -1.6 -1.6 -0.7 27 R +1.9 R +1.6 3.4 0.25 10/30/18
22 Los Angeles Times 172 36 yes yes Live no -0.6 A/B R +0.1 85% 22% 4.6 6.4 -1.6 -0.8 -0.3 23 R +0.3 D +0.8 5.1 0.15 10/26/08
23 Michigan State University 463 2 yes yes Live no -0.6 A/B R +0.0 100% 0% 1.0 9.6 -8.4 -7.7 -0.7 2 R +0.5 R +1.5   0.0 10/18/18
24 University of Connecticut 347 7 yes yes Live no -0.6 A/B R +0.3 93% 14% 4.0 5.4 -1.2 -1.4 -0.2 7 R +2.3 R +2.0 8.0 0.0 10/20/08
25 University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) 346 39 yes yes Live no -0.6 A/B R +1.3 94% 21% 3.9 5.7 -1.7 -0.9 -0.4 30 R +3.2 R +2.4 3.4 0.46 11/2/12
26 Temple University 336 6 yes yes* Live* no -0.6 A/B R +0.2 100% 17% 3.7 5.2 -1.3 -1.4 -0.2 5 R +2.5 D +0.7 3.7 0.08 10/23/08
27 Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research 103 40 yes yes Live no -0.5 A- D +1.4 71% 38% 5.6 5.8 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 25 D +2.7 D +1.0 4.8 0.0 10/29/18
28 Castleton University 45 3 yes yes Live no -0.5 A/B   100% 33% 9.9 9.5 0.6 -1.0 -0.1 0       0.0 2/10/16
29 KRC/Communications Research 160 22 yes yes* Live* no -0.5 A/B D +0.1 91% 41% 7.1 7.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1 11 D +0.7 D +2.5 6.5 0.0 1/26/04
30 Wirthlin Worldwide 387 4 yes yes* Live* no -0.5 A/B R +0.2 75% 25% 4.5 6.1 -1.3 -1.6 -0.1 4 R +3.9 R +5.6 5.3 0.14 10/22/00
31 Indiana University 149 2 yes yes Live no -0.5 A/B D +0.0 100% 0% 0.9 6.1 -5.0 -4.7 -0.1 2 D +0.9 D +4.1   0.0 10/18/04
32 Siena College 305 53 yes partial Online/Live no -0.5 A- R +0.7 90% 23% 4.9 5.4 -0.2 -0.9 -0.6 49 R +1.1 R +1.1 4.7 0.2 10/30/18
33 Louis Harris & Associates 173 2 yes yes* Live* no -0.5 A/B D +0.0 100% 0% 0.9 5.0 -3.9 -5.2 -0.1 2 D +0.9 D +5.4 5.5 0.0 10/31/98
34 Market Strategies International 189 1 yes yes* Live* no -0.5 A/B R +0.0 100% 0% 1.1 6.3 -5.0 -5.4 -0.1 1 R +1.1 R +4.6 3.6 1.27 10/28/02
35 NBC News/The Wall Street Journal 221 31 yes yes Live no -0.4 A- D +0.6 73% 10% 4.0 5.2 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 26 D +1.2 D +0.7 3.1 0.5 11/2/18
36 University of Florida 349 1 yes yes Live no -0.4 A/B D +0.0 50% 0% 1.1 4.5 -3.3 -1.0 0.0 1 D +1.1 R +0.1 1.4 1.2 10/26/14
37 Gordon S. Black Corp. 123 2 yes yes* Live* no -0.4 A/B R +0.1 100% 50% 6.4 4.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 2 R +6.4 R +1.3 6.0 0.0 10/18/98
38 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corp. 104 34 yes yes* Live* no -0.4 A/B R +0.3 72% 12% 3.9 5.1 -1.1 -0.3 -0.1 28 R +0.9 R +1.6 4.1 0.15 10/27/10
39 Yankelovich Partners Inc. 390 7 yes yes* Live* no -0.4 A/B R +0.0 50% 43% 8.1 7.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 3 R +1.0 R +1.8 4.3 0.23 10/26/00
40 Emerson College 88 165 yes no IVR/Online/Text no -0.4 A- D +0.3 80% 24% 5.4 6.2 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 123 D +0.4 R +1.3 5.2 0.05 3/12/20
41 Harvard University 135 1 yes yes* Live* no -0.4 A/B D +0.1 0% 0% 6.8 6.2 0.8 0.7 0.0 1 D +6.8 D +1.5 2.0 2.69 10/26/02
42 Public Policy Institute of California 262 16 yes yes Live no -0.3 A/B R +1.0 100% 25% 5.2 5.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 10 R +4.4 R +1.1   0.0 2/12/20
43 University of Illinois at Chicago 352 1 yes yes* Live* no -0.3 A/B R +0.2 100% 100% 14.1 5.3 8.9 7.2 0.1 1 R +14.1 R +5.1   0.0 10/16/98
44 Abt Associates 7 10 yes yes Live no -0.3 A/B D +0.8 90% 20% 3.8 5.1 -1.1 -0.3 -0.1 9 D +3.3 D +0.3 4.0 0.4 6/7/17
45 Winthrop University 386 2 yes yes Live no -0.3 A/B D +0.0 100% 50% 12.0 6.4 5.8 0.6 0.1 1 D +0.2 R +1.2 3.6 0.27 2/14/20
46 RKM Research and Communications Inc. 272 34 no yes Live no -0.3 A- R +0.1 87% 24% 5.3 6.9 -1.4 -1.2 -0.6 20 R +0.5 R +1.5 4.5 0.05 2/7/20
47 Georgetown University (Battleground) 114 35 yes yes Live no -0.3 A/B R +0.6 57% 11% 3.4 4.6 -1.0 -0.3 -0.1 35 R +1.4 R +1.6 3.3 0.43 11/5/12
48 Princeton Survey Research Associates International 258 35 yes yes Live no -0.3 A/B D +0.5 63% 31% 5.1 5.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 33 D +1.2 D +0.2 4.7 0.0 10/25/14
49 Market Shares Corp. 187 25 yes yes Live no -0.3 A/B R +1.1 84% 28% 5.8 5.5 0.5 -0.1 0.0 22 R +4.1 R +1.9 4.6 0.36 10/22/12
50 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 197 433 no yes Live no -0.3 B+ R +0.6 87% 23% 5.1 5.7 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 376 R +0.7 R +1.2 5.1 0.09 11/6/19
51 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 37 103 yes yes Live no -0.2 B+ D +0.0 72% 25% 5.5 6.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 71 D +0.0 D +0.1 5.0 0.09 10/30/16
52 Research & Polling Inc. 280 32 no yes Live no -0.2 B+ R +0.9 84% 9% 4.5 6.0 -1.2 -1.5 -0.7 31 R +1.8 R +0.5 3.2 0.56 10/29/18
53 Quinnipiac University 267 207 yes yes Live no -0.2 B+ D +0.2 83% 23% 4.6 5.6 -0.8 -0.2 -0.1 153 D +0.2 D +0.4 5.2 0.0 11/1/18
54 EPIC-MRA 84 49 no yes Live no -0.2 B+ R +0.2 78% 24% 5.5 6.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.5 42 R +0.4 D +0.6 5.3 0.13 3/5/20
55 Elway Research 87 21 no partial Live/Text no -0.2 A/B D +0.8 90% 5% 3.9 6.3 -2.2 -2.6 -1.0 20 D +2.1 D +3.7 4.2 0.37 10/21/16
56 St. Norbert College 313 12 no yes Live no -0.2 A/B D +0.2 88% 0% 3.9 6.7 -2.7 -2.4 -0.6 11 D +0.9 D +3.0 5.3 0.22 10/20/14
57 University of North Florida 360 9 yes partial Online/Live no -0.1 A/B D +0.7 44% 33% 4.0 5.9 -1.7 -0.4 -0.1 6 D +3.9 D +1.4 4.0 0.04 3/8/20
58 Elon University 86 8 yes partial Online/Live no -0.1 A/B D +0.5 56% 13% 3.2 4.6 -1.3 -1.0 -0.2 8 D +2.1 D +0.8 3.6 0.57 10/25/16
59 National Research Inc. 225 10 no yes Live no -0.1 A/B R +0.5 75% 20% 5.1 6.8 -1.5 -1.7 -0.4 7 R +3.3 R +5.5 5.9 0.0 3/5/16
60 Blum & Weprin Associates 32 19 no yes Live no -0.1 A/B R +0.7 95% 21% 4.8 5.2 -0.2 -2.1 -0.5 17 R +3.4 D +0.9 4.6 0.04 10/25/10
61 Public Religion Research Institute 428 1 yes partial Online/Live no -0.1 A/B D +0.0 100% 0% 0.4 5.1 -4.4 -2.9 -0.1 1 D +0.4 D +1.7 2.0 1.23 10/19/18
62 Middle Tennessee State University 208 5 yes yes Live no -0.1 A/B D +0.6 100% 60% 9.3 6.0 3.5 2.1 0.3 4 D +4.6 R +5.0 4.5 0.21 10/24/14
63 Fleming & Associates 96 17 no yes Live no -0.1 A/B R +0.4 100% 12% 5.0 6.3 -1.1 -1.7 -0.6 15 R +1.4 R +0.2 3.7 0.63 10/22/18
64 University of Massachusetts Lowell 355 19 yes no Online no -0.1 A/B R +0.2 74% 37% 7.2 6.9 0.5 -0.6 -0.3 9 R +0.8 R +0.6 5.5 0.0 2/16/20
65 Cygnal 67 13 no partial IVR/Online/Live/Text no -0.1 A/B D +1.0 92% 0% 3.0 5.6 -2.4 -3.0 -1.1 13 D +2.6 R +1.0 3.5 0.76 11/8/19
66 Angus Reid Global 13 30 no no Online no 0.0 B+ R +1.2 93% 7% 3.2 5.6 -2.1 -2.6 -1.2 30 R +2.6 D +0.8 3.1 0.85 11/3/16
67 Public Opinion Strategies 260 64 yes partial Online/Live no 0.0 B+ R +1.5 70% 22% 5.7 6.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 62 R +2.4 R +4.1 4.3 0.33 10/16/18
68 Strategic Vision LLC 320 133 no yes* Live* yes 0.0 F R +1.5 89% 18% 3.8 5.1 -1.1 -0.4 -0.3 110 R +2.2 R +2.1 4.4 0.12 11/1/08
69 North Star Opinion Research/Ayres, McHenry & Associates 233 8 no yes Live no 0.0 A/B R +0.6 94% 25% 5.5 6.7 -1.0 -3.5 -0.7 6 R +3.5 R +6.1 4.4 0.37 10/23/16
70 American Viewpoint 10 8 no yes Live no 0.0 B/C R +0.8 69% 0% 4.2 5.7 -1.3 -1.6 -0.3 8 R +3.5 R +3.3 6.3 0.0 10/17/18
71 Landmark Communications 166 39 no partial IVR/Live no 0.0 B D +1.5 82% 23% 4.8 5.4 -0.5 -0.8 -0.4 33 D +2.8 R +0.5 4.5 0.0 6/19/17
72 Ward Research (Honolulu Star-Advertiser) 375 15 no yes Live no 0.0 B/C R +0.4 80% 33% 5.9 6.0 0.0 -1.5 -0.4 15 R +1.4 D +1.8 3.9 0.49 10/15/14
73 University of Arkansas 345 6 no yes Live no 0.0 B/C D +0.7 100% 0% 4.1 5.3 -1.0 -2.6 -0.5 6 D +4.1 R +3.9 6.9 0.0 10/22/16
74 Harstad Strategic Research Inc. 134 10 no yes Live no 0.0 B/C D +0.6 75% 10% 3.8 5.9 -1.9 -1.6 -0.3 10 D +2.6 D +3.3 5.1 0.0 10/21/14
75 RT Strategies 275 42 yes yes Live no 0.1 B/C D +1.0 69% 40% 5.9 4.8 1.3 0.9 0.4 42 D +2.2 D +3.4 8.6 0.0 10/28/06
76 Harper Polling 132 11 no partial IVR/Live no 0.1 B/C D +0.1 91% 18% 3.6 6.0 -2.3 -1.9 -0.6 8 D +0.5 R +1.1 5.3 0.0 11/3/16
77 University of South Alabama 361 9 no yes Live no 0.1 B/C R +0.4 100% 11% 3.3 5.3 -1.8 -2.0 -0.3 9 R +2.6 R +2.0 7.2 0.0 10/14/10
78 Public Policy Polling 263 423 no no IVR/Text no 0.1 B D +0.3 80% 31% 5.0 5.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 294 D +0.4 D +0.9 4.7 0.0 2/25/20
79 GQR Research (GQRR) 126 57 yes partial Online/Live no 0.1 B D +2.1 56% 14% 4.5 5.3 -0.6 0.1 0.0 55 D +3.6 D +3.4 4.1 0.13 10/24/18
80 University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) 365 7 yes yes* Live* no 0.1 B/C D +0.4 86% 29% 12.2 6.0 6.4 3.6 0.4 6 D +4.1 D +3.8 4.0 0.89 10/25/08
81 Gallup 112 84 yes yes Live no 0.1 B R +0.4 69% 30% 4.3 5.0 -0.6 0.6 0.4 69 R +0.7 R +1.4 4.1 0.0 10/22/18
82 Rutgers University 295 14 yes yes Live no 0.1 B/C R +0.0 86% 14% 5.7 5.6 0.3 1.8 0.5 14 R +0.1 D +0.9 6.1 0.0 10/16/18
83 Pharos Research Group 254 33 no yes Live yes 0.1 F D +0.8 92% 15% 3.8 4.9 -1.0 -0.4 -0.2 33 D +1.6 D +1.1 4.1 0.22 10/27/12
84 Keating Research 161 5 no yes Live no 0.1 B/C D +0.1 80% 0% 2.4 5.0 -2.4 -2.1 -0.3 5 D +0.9 D +2.8 3.7 0.62 11/3/16
85 American Research Group 9 273 yes yes Live no 0.2 B R +0.2 75% 39% 7.4 7.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 82 R +0.2 R +1.7 6.9 0.0 2/9/20
86 Montana State University Billings 216 7 no yes Live no 0.2 B/C D +0.3 57% 0% 3.6 6.3 -2.5 -4.1 -0.5 7 D +3.0 D +2.5   0.0 10/18/08
87 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint 127 8 no yes Live no 0.2 B/C R +0.7 100% 50% 4.4 4.9 -0.3 -0.8 -0.2 6 R +4.2 D +1.5 5.4 0.0 10/26/16
88 Financial Dynamics 95 15 no yes* Live* no 0.2 B/C R +0.4 100% 0% 2.6 4.7 -1.9 -1.3 -0.3 15 R +1.7 R +2.2 2.4 0.63 11/1/08
89 University of Washington 364 9 no yes Live no 0.2 B/C D +0.1 100% 0% 3.6 5.5 -1.7 -1.6 -0.3 9 D +0.3 D +3.4 4.8 0.74 10/25/12
90 Market Research Institute Inc. 186 11 no yes* Live* no 0.2 B/C D +0.1 100% 27% 4.2 5.3 -1.0 -1.6 -0.2 11 D +0.6 D +0.4 5.1 0.35 10/24/04
91 Iowa State University 153 3 no yes Live no 0.2 B/C   67% 33% 6.2 8.9 -2.4 -3.7 -0.4 0       0.0 1/14/16
92 McKeon & Associates 202 3 no yes Live no 0.2 B/C D +0.2 67% 33% 2.9 5.9 -2.9 -4.1 -0.4 2 D +3.0 D +0.5 12.8 0.0 3/12/16
93 Christopher Newport University 50 10 no yes Live no 0.2 B/C D +0.7 100% 30% 5.9 5.1 1.0 -0.4 -0.1 9 D +2.7 D +2.1 5.4 0.0 2/14/20
94 Tarrance Group 333 28 no yes Live no 0.2 B/C R +0.9 82% 25% 6.2 6.6 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 24 R +2.4 R +6.0 7.2 0.0 10/21/18
95 Victory Research 437 2 no yes Live no 0.2 B/C D +0.0 100% 0% 2.0 5.9 -3.7 -4.6 -0.4 1 D +0.3     0.0 3/8/20
96 SSRS 297 18 yes yes Live no 0.2 B/C D +1.2 50% 22% 5.6 5.3 0.5 1.3 0.6 16 D +2.9 D +2.7 5.9 0.0 2/24/20
97 Orion Strategies 246 4 no yes Live no 0.2 B/C D +0.1 100% 25% 3.2 6.6 -3.2 -3.9 -0.3 3 D +1.5 D +6.5 2.7 0.35 10/12/10
98 CJ&N 63 4 no yes* Live* no 0.2 B/C D +0.1 100% 25% 3.5 7.6 -3.9 -3.3 -0.3 1 D +3.2     0.0 10/26/10
99 Marshall Marketing & Communications 196 4 no yes* Live* no 0.3 B/C R +0.2 100% 0% 3.4 6.6 -3.1 -1.9 -0.2 3 R +2.9 R +1.2   0.0 10/21/08
100 YouGov 391 416 no no Online no 0.3 B D +0.4 88% 30% 4.9 5.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 357 D +0.4 D +0.2 4.6 0.0 3/7/20

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CREATE TABLE "pollster-ratings/pollster-ratings" (
"Pollster" TEXT,
  "Pollster Rating ID" INTEGER,
  "# of Polls" INTEGER,
  "NCPP / AAPOR / Roper" TEXT,
  "Live Caller With Cellphones" TEXT,
  "Methodology" TEXT,
  "Banned by 538" TEXT,
  "Predictive    Plus-Minus" REAL,
  "538 Grade" TEXT,
  "Mean-Reverted Bias" TEXT,
  "Races Called Correctly" TEXT,
  "Misses Outside MOE" TEXT,
  "Simple Average Error" REAL,
  "Simple Expected Error" REAL,
  "Simple Plus-Minus" REAL,
  "Advanced Plus-Minus" REAL,
  "Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus Minus" REAL,
  "# of Polls for Bias Analysis" INTEGER,
  "Bias" TEXT,
  "House Effect" TEXT,
  "Average Distance from Polling Average (ADPA)" REAL,
  "Herding Penalty" REAL,
  "latest_poll" TEXT
);
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